Controversial Trump vs Harris who do you predict wins?

Who do you predict wins?

  • Total voters
    50
  • Poll closed .
milluki

milluki

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#381
#381
the real election was held on the 13th of july. only one vote was cast. our creator made his will heard. what is happening now is just a formality.



trump will write the names of the losers and haters, the enemies from within, in a little notebook



there are higher forces at play. the glass candles are burning again, as they did in 2016. meme magic transcends every trick kambala and her supporters have up their sleeves.

 
Mathias

Mathias

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#382
#382
milluki said:
the real election was held on the 13th of july. only one vote was cast. our creator made his will heard. what is happening now is just a formality.



trump will write the names of the losers and haters, the enemies from within, in a little notebook



there are higher forces at play. the glass candles are burning again, as they did in 2016. meme magic transcends every trick kambala and her supporters have up their sleeves.

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That's what pussies expect. Real über-mensch want this
 
Toby D. Dog

Toby D. Dog

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#383
#383
milluki said:
the real election was held on the 13th of july. only one vote was cast. our creator made his will heard. what is happening now is just a formality.



trump will write the names of the losers and haters, the enemies from within, in a little notebook



there are higher forces at play. the glass candles are burning again, as they did in 2016. meme magic transcends every trick kambala and her supporters have up their sleeves.

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God I hope this is sarcasm.
 
Toby D. Dog

Toby D. Dog

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#390
#390
Apollo said:
I'm gonna have to ask you to source that, since afaik most polling on Nevada favors Trump with a decent margin.
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Nevermind, I don’t have a specific source for that since the Republican Party in Nevada pushed people in that state to vote early. It does seem like democrat early voting is catching up to it but it’s rather sluggish.
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Apollo said:
I'm gonna have to ask you to source that, since afaik most polling on Nevada favors Trump with a decent margin.
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Btw if you’re referring to atlas intel inundating us with polls that show Trump+2 I wouldn’t be taking those seriously. They were the worst polling outlet in 2022. Kamala is still up on the average in the state of Nevada.
 
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Jesse Pinkman

Jesse Pinkman

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#391
#391
Indigo said:
He still has a chance, that's for sure



i'm aware

but i'm more of a numbers guy

i trust more in Nate Silver's model, taking into account all polls

he says Selzer is the best pollster, and at the same time said she was brave putting this one out, because she is likely gonna be wrong

and the fact that her sample wasn't really representative of Iowa this time around, with a big focus on non-trumpsters

also, neither Kamala or Trump going to Iowa at all, tells me their internal polling didn't show up as a competitive battleground

She could be right and the entire rest of the polling industry wrong, but even in her margin of error, Trump could win
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No way Iowa is turning blue Trump wins more than 8% last time Obama won with very low margin that was in 2012 .

Kamala hardly campaigned in Iowa .
 
Toby D. Dog

Toby D. Dog

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#392
#392
Jesse Pinkman said:
No way Iowa is turning blue Trump wins more than 8% last time Obama won with very low margin that was in 2012 .

Kamala hardly campaigned in Iowa .
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That poll is significant not only because she’s 3 points up (not to mention she’s been right for the last 3 election cycles with a margin of error of 1-2 points) but also because it might show us that pollsters are undersampling some key demographics. Even if she doesn’t win Iowa, it is disastrous for him to win it by less than 8 points or so.

If women come out in droves to vote, Trump has no chance of winning. He’s only winning white women by 1% (which is unheard of) and those Puerto Rico comments might actually cost him states like PA for good.
 
Jesse Pinkman

Jesse Pinkman

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#393
#393
Toby D. Dog said:
That poll is significant not only because she’s 3 points up (not to mention she’s been right for the last 3 election cycles with a margin of error of 1-2 points) but also because it might show us that pollsters are undersampling some key demographics. Even if she doesn’t win Iowa, it is disastrous for him to win it by less than 8 points or so.

If women come out in droves to vote, Trump has no chance of winning. He’s only winning white women by 1% (which is unheard of) and those Puerto Rico comments might actually cost him states like PA for good.
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To be fair I never believed in Polls . I have no idea how they use metrics to calculate .

Yes , Dem is betting on Woman voter especially elderly woman who fought for Roe Vs Wade . Trump had to use Megan Kelly , Gabbard in his closing notes . It indicates Republicans and Trump Team are nervous about woman voters .

I don’t think he will win Puerto Rico anyway so the racist jabs won’t affect much to his MAGA vote base who are mostly middle age men and old Grandpas they are core Trump voters .
 
Toby D. Dog

Toby D. Dog

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#394
#394
Jesse Pinkman said:
To be fair I never believed in Polls . I have no idea how they use metrics to calculate .

Yes , Dem is betting on Woman voter especially elderly woman who fought for Roe Vs Wade . Trump had to use Megan Kelly , Gabbard in his closing notes . It indicates Republicans and Trump Team are nervous about woman voters .

I don’t think he will win Puerto Rico anyway so the racist jabs won’t affect much to his MAGA vote base who are mostly middle age men and old Grandpas they are core Trump voters .
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Puerto Rico doesn’t get to vote in presidential elections. What matters are the Puerto Ricans that live in states like PA, Florida and Michigan.

For polls you basically sample the groups you think will show up to vote. However, if you can’t accurately predict who will vote and in what numbers, the results will look WAY different. Pollsters are also scared because they’ve underestimated Trump twice already. But people forget pollsters also underestimated democrats 2 years ago in the midterms and they over performed the polls by 7 points.
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Abortion is also on the ballot for a lot of these swing states.
 
Jesse Pinkman

Jesse Pinkman

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#395
#395
Toby D. Dog said:
Puerto Rico doesn’t get to vote in presidential elections. What matters are the Puerto Ricans that live in states like PA, Florida and Michigan.

For polls you basically sample the groups you think will show up to vote. However, if you can’t accurately predict who will vote and in what numbers, the results will look WAY different. Pollsters are also scared because they’ve underestimated Trump twice already. But people forget pollsters also underestimated democrats 2 years ago in the midterms and they over performed the polls by 7 points.
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So you are saying pollsters are overestimating Trump’s number and Harris can still win .

If she breaks hard Red state especially Iowa then Trump is in huge trouble .
 
Toby D. Dog

Toby D. Dog

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#396
#396
Jesse Pinkman said:
So you are saying pollsters are overestimating Trump’s number and Harris can still win .

If she breaks hard Red state especially Iowa then Trump is in huge trouble .
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It is definitely possible. A lot of the signs are there. Most of his hand picked candidates got destroyed in 2022. He also has a lot of baggage that he didn’t have in 2020 like the 84 criminal charges, J6, the repeal of roe v wade and his recent behavior.

His campaign was also downright horrible. He’s focused his campaign more on trans people and his personal grievances than inflation or even immigration. His approval rating is abysmal while Kamala’s is actually pretty decent.

I just think there’s too much going on against him this time around.
 
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