Speculations What did Oda plan for ? What did he make up on the fly ?

#1
What elements of the plot and worldbuilding, characters and events and powers of One Piece do you think that Oda had really a solid and long plan for when writing the manga ?
What else do you think that he wrote on the spot due to having changed his mind, realized that the scenario and characters were facing a roadblock, or simply due to having forgotten what he had written before ?

What arcs and characters do you think that he had made a solid plan for, and those for which he was uncertain and improvised and changed his mind a lot ?
 
#3
Planned:
  • Most strawhats;
  • Fishmen and giants;
  • Luffy's encounter with Shanks (after he became a Great Pirate);
  • The One Piece's ending and the One Piece itself;
  • Roger's crew and Shanks' crew;
  • Garp being Luffy's granpa and his relationship with Koby;
  • Blackbeard as an endgame villain;
  • The devil fruits.

Partially planned:
  • Haki;
  • Fishman Island, Amazon Lily, Wano and Elbaf;
  • The Yonko (Hancock as a Yonko);
  • The Admirals;
  • The World Government (+ Imu and The Gorosei);
  • Joy Boy, the Poneglyphs and the Void Century's plot.
  • Edit: I forgot to add the Revolutionaries.

Unplanned:
  • 95% of the plot/places/characters from the Alabasta Saga and beyond;
  • Longarms, longlegs, dwarves and many other races;
  • The Shichibukai (at least Hancock was planned to be a Yonko though);
  • Ace and, more obviously, Sabo (maybe Sabo was planned when Ace first appeared);
  • Franky;
  • Cipher Pols;
  • The Supernova;
  • The God's Knights;
  • The Underworld;
  • Vegapunk and MADS;
  • Nika.
 
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#4
Planned:
  • Most strawhats;
  • Fishmen and giants;
  • Luffy's encounter with Shanks (after he became a Great Pirate);
  • The One Piece's ending and the One Piece itself;
  • Roger's crew and Shanks' crew;
  • Garp being Luffy's granpa and his relationship with Koby;
  • Blackbeard as an endgame villain;
  • The devil fruits.

Partially planned:
  • Haki;
  • Fishman Island, Amazon Lily, Wano and Elbaf;
  • The Yonko (Hancock as a Yonko);
  • The Admirals;
  • The World Government (+ Imu and The Gorosei);
  • Joy Boy, the Poneglyphs and the Void Century's plot.

Unplanned:
  • 95% of the plot/places/characters from the Alabasta Saga and beyond;
  • Longarms, longlegs, dwarves and many other races;
  • The Shichibukai (at least Hancock was planned to be a Yonko though);
  • Ace and, more obviously, Sabo (maybe Sabo was planned when Ace first appeared);
  • Franky;
  • Cipher Pols;
  • The Supernova;
  • The God's Knights;
  • The Underworld;
  • Vegapunk and MADS;
  • Nika.
I don´t really know if I buy Haki or the void century stuff being planned tbh. Op was originally supposed to end in 5 years I think. The void century was only introduced in Alabasta, but idk
 
#5
I don´t really know if I buy Haki or the void century stuff being planned tbh. Op was originally supposed to end in 5 years I think. The void century was only introduced in Alabasta, but idk
Haki (CoC) appears on chapter #1. CoA and CoO definitely weren't developed though, and all advanced forms of haki too. That's why I think that it was only "partially planned".

About the Void Century, it's just a speculation by my side, but I think that at least some form of past lore was developed early in One Piece, as the Marines/WG were already a thing back in East Blue.
 
#7
imo there's a lot that's planned in advance, but in most of those cases, not from beginning to end the way people usually imply on like reddit or whatever, more likely 1-3 arcs ahead of time (ofc, there's always gonna be some stuff that is planned long-term, and some stuff that's more improvised as well)

One thing I think is pretty cool about this is that you can even see Oda's research for the next arc in the ones immediately preceding it sometimes, like some cultural/historic references during Alabasta's publication (especially the 2nd half) that overlap heavily with Skypiea,
e.x. The color spread below with Luffy wearing clothes with symbols from various Native American cultures (some of which are actually just straight up reused in Skypiea), and Nami wearing camo similar to how she does during the angel beach part of the arc. (Chapter 175, so this was during the Mr. Prince/Rainbase portion of Alabasta)



There's also locations in India referenced in Alabasta's architecture (the clock tower being based on the Ghanta Gar, and Alubarna palace being half-based on the Taj Mahal, both verified in Rurubu One Piece), that might have been related to him researching locations for Jaya in the next arc, an island named after a Sanskrit term* that also features South Asian references in architecture and attire.
* (much like the city of Shandora/Chandra, something far more noticeable when written in katakana)

It all makes sense when you realize how much weekly authors are pressed for time, and how much it'd help to just refer back to the same history and architecture books (or even same sketchbooks/concepts) whenever it makes enough sense. Plus, he seems to like not wasting reusable things in the story to begin with (like how background characters and old locations are constantly kept as a part of the story). Though tbr, it also seems harder to spot now, might be since Oda has a lot more research under his belt after so many arcs, maybe he'd be less inclined to pull from a shallow bag and reuse IRL references from one arc to the immediate next arc, or to 'show his hand' early with his research topics meaningfully
 
#8
Oda surely didn't have a plan for Big Mom and Kaido and their crews, the more I look back at the Yonko Saga, both WCI and Wano; as well as the different design changes to Kaido and Big Mom's silhouettes before their full reveals and the inconsistencies in their personalities the more I believe that he had some basic ideas but largely made and changed things up as the story went on and on.

Even the Katakuri fight shows how Oda had no real plan, with Luffy for example saying that there was a limit to observation haki and that he planned to tire Katakuri out of FS, only for it to never happen, as well as the many inconsistencies and contradictions in Katakuri's motivation as the arc went on.

This can also be seen in Oda's very strange handling of BM's non related subordinates such as Pekoms and Bobbin.

I am also sure that Yamato was a last minute addition, given the complete absence of mention or foreshadowing of her existence before Onigashima.
 
#12
I am also sure that Yamato was a last minute addition, given the complete absence of mention or foreshadowing of her existence before Onigashima.
This was peak brainrot moment for Oda, truly an afterthought shit character.

Wano started chapter 909, yet we literally only knew about Kaido’s sperm in 979, 70 fucking chapters later.

What was much MORE important in Oda’s two remaining braincells to address in those 70 Wano chapters that he couldn’t have the time to even merely hint at the existence of a character that will have a central role during Wano climax and Kaido’s very own downfall?

Hint Hint: Holdem and an additional 100 or so irrelevant Wano fodder munching on panel time.
 
#13
What elements of the plot and worldbuilding, characters and events and powers of One Piece do you think that Oda had really a solid and long plan for when writing the manga ?
What else do you think that he wrote on the spot due to having changed his mind, realized that the scenario and characters were facing a roadblock, or simply due to having forgotten what he had written before ?

What arcs and characters do you think that he had made a solid plan for, and those for which he was uncertain and improvised and changed his mind a lot ?
I would give my hand on the fact that Oda knew where the fruit of Luffy would end up from the beginning. I'm not 100% sure that it was named "Nika" at the time, but he definitely had the idea of the Sun God behind this transformation since.

We can see that two things :
- This is a revelation that is highly thematically important. Oda uses a narrative tools here that is significative of a big early thinking
- Plenty of clues demonstrate that the story in building up toward that revelation

Aside from that, you can be sure that Oda had the idea of Kaido (not necessarily in this form) since the beginning. The first part of One Piece in constructed to build up Wano and the thematics of this saga and the way they are written philosophically shows us that it's not just a random saga, but something the influenced his entire work from East Bue to Marineford.

I think Oda had all the strawhats also back then (I even think he had one more but he seems to have scrapped the idea not so long ago).

I think Oda had all the big thematics of his arcs, the average look and locations and the fundamental conflicts minus the exact bad guyz. (this would be suicidal to start such a story without this type of plan).

There are key moments that I think were prepared for a long time (the death of Ace, the timeskip, the final confrontation, gold roger's story, Luffy's backstory etc.) maybe even since the beginning. For the story of the strawhat, they might have been prepared for a long time but it's possible that they are less ancient. But they will ALWAYS be prepared a long time in advance nonetheless (i'd say around 1 to 3 arcs previous to the recruitment if not more in the case of Robin has we can see glimps of clues about her recruitment in her first appearance.)
 
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#14
Haki (CoC) appears on chapter #1. CoA and CoO definitely weren't developed though, and all advanced forms of haki too. That's why I think that it was only "partially planned".

About the Void Century, it's just a speculation by my side, but I think that at least some form of past lore was developed early in One Piece, as the Marines/WG were already a thing back in East Blue.
I see where you are coming from, but Shanks interaction with the sea king isn´t really like the COC we see later on Imo. It seems more like more of a generic anime badass thing.
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The final 4 Yonko were definitely planned with Buggy having a strong swordsman on his crew.
That picture of the new Yonko being based on the old Manga cover of Luffy, BB, Buggy and Shanks is actually endearing lol. We came so far
 
#15
This was peak brainrot moment for Oda, truly an afterthought shit character.

Wano started chapter 909, yet we literally only knew about Kaido’s sperm in 979, 70 fucking chapters later.

What was much MORE important in Oda’s two remaining braincells to address in those 70 Wano chapters that he couldn’t have the time to even merely hint at the existence of a character that will have a central role during Wano climax and Kaido’s very own downfall?

Hint Hint: Holdem and an additional 100 or so irrelevant Wano fodder munching on panel time.
Imagine Franky being introduced in Enies Lobby, not in W7
 
#17
Imagine Franky being introduced in Enies Lobby, not in W7
The comparison is fallacious. Franky and Yamato do not have the same importance at all.

While introducing Franky 80 before the end of the arc would be a problem, doing the same thing for Yamato is not since she has a lot less narrative importance.

Oda simply got us used to the fact of introducing his character very early, but it not uncommon for stories to introduced character later down the line.
 
#18
-Ace’s death was planned
-The SN were not
-The Mugiwaras were planned
-Lucci and co being the big bad of EL was not
-Hancock was planned
-The Shishibukai were not
-The admirals and Teach were planned
-Kaido and big mom were not
-Shanks was planned
-Shanks losing his arm was not
-MF was planned
-Shanks ending the war was not
-CoC and CoO were planned
-CoA was not

In a story this long you will have a mix bag of planned and not planned elements.
Oda’s talent is his capacity to create enough room in his story to allow that, in most cases, he can add new elements without affecting the general flow of the narrative.
Some of the best moments of the story are from the editors which show also that Oda is totally willing and able to add other people idea in his story and make them fit.
 
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