Yeah I have no knowledge of beta's meta because this is my second game. I'd rather not rely on that to make up my decision about what has happened here. Let's instead look at it logically.
Why was Sera targeted? The obvious answer, at least to me, is that it's a set up created by one, or both scums. Suppose this was the case. Who would benefit from this set up? The people that sussed Reborn.
Beta, Cobra, Sera. - Day 2
Beta, Cobra, Sera, Gambit - Day 3
Sera and Gambit are dead townies so that leaves us with Beta and Cobra. What were their reasons?
Day 3:
Both had their reasons dating back to day 2:
Note thought that both happened AFTER the whole Sera/Reborn fight. Cobra first, then Beta, almost simultaneously:
Cobra:
Cobra was mostly going as gut feeling/it would benefit town mentality, without going really into the details. Beta didn't like Reborn's attitude, it didn't fit his normal play style.
Today, Cobra said it was obviously Reborn that killed Sera. And Beta hopped off Reborn and went for Nat, who was sussing him.
TBH I think Cobra is just a dumb townie, so personally I believe he fell for the trap/frame that was put on Reborn. But, he's been consistent. If he's dumb scum, then he would do the same. My hunch is he's town so I'll leave it at that.
Beta:
Beta would benefit from framing Reborn this way. His reason is that his behavior is abnormal, and the moment he started sussing him was absolutely opportunistic/tunnel vision-y. But note today he is not sticking to Reborn but instead going for Nat.
@Finalbeta do you still sus Reborn after Sera's death?
Now let's say it wasn't a set up. Who was threatened by Sera? The people that Sera wanted to lynch.
Nat is one of them, Sera was down to lynch her next day phase. It's interesting how she jumped right into voting for Beta, without giving it a second thought. If this wasn't a set up, then it would absolutely benefit her to kill Sera, and get the blame on Beta in one go, since she believes Reborn is town (I'm pretty sure she said more than he's too useful)
Now, my theory is, since Sera was down to vote her, I had my vote on her, Yo didn't like her attitude and may have voted for her, she had to eliminate one of us. Yo would have had doctor on her, I think it would have been to obvious to kill me since I wrote two huge paragraphs on her, but Sera was perfect. And so this is why she will have my vote now again
Vote Lynch Natalija @AL sama
Another person that could be threatened by Sera is Yo. After analyzing their discussion last DP, I'd be inclined to say it was town vs town. Yo put way too much effort into Gambit, and all the evidence could have worked, but in the end it didn't.
If I missed anything please let me know.