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Melontonin

Blood Manipulation
If you want my honest thoughts on lynching D0/D1 whatever you want to call the first day.

You do the best benefit for town to lynch every day as it lowers the numbers and helps increase the odds of figuring out who scum is in the long run of a game. You can do the math and probability and it always points to > lynch is towns strongest weapon and should be utilized. Even if you hit town or whatever youre narrowing the suspect list even in massive games.

No Lynch does nothing but makes the odds more in scum favour.

Simple math from a 12 man game with 3 scum (9 town, 3 scum)
No Lynch Day 1.
Day 2 8 Town 3 scum = 27.27% chance
Day 3 6 town 3 scum = 33.33% chance

Lynch Day 1
Day 2 7 Town 3 scum = 30.00% chance
Day 3 5 Town 3 scum = 37.50% chance

So as you can see odds favour always lynched.


Now for the no serious answer! NAT IS CLEARLY EVIL, GET HER!
It's not fair to compare a 12 people game with a 50 people game, the maths will barely shift any way.

Simple math from a 50 man game with 11 scum (39 town, 11 scum)
No Lynch Day 1.
Day 2 38 Town 11 scum = 28.95% chance
Day 3 36 town 11 scum = 30.55% chance

Lynch Day 1
Day 2 37 Town 11 scum = 29.72% chance
Day 3 35 Town 11 scum = 31.42% chance

So as you can see odds favour always lynched, which is less than 1%

You are a sneaky Wolf Mathematician :pepestrike:
 
It's not fair to compare a 12 people game with a 50 people game, the maths will barely shift any way.

Simple math from a 50 man game with 11 scum (39 town, 11 scum)
No Lynch Day 1.
Day 2 38 Town 11 scum = 28.95% chance
Day 3 36 town 11 scum = 30.55% chance

Lynch Day 1
Day 2 37 Town 11 scum = 29.72% chance
Day 3 35 Town 11 scum = 31.42% chance

So as you can see odds favour always lynched, which is less than 1%

You are a sneaky Wolf Mathematician :pepestrike:
Only 11 scum? You're being generous here :D

1% is still improving your odds regardless. Better to improve your odds then decrease them.

Do you not gamble?
 
N

Noctis

Also if we have a serial killer, then it should count as its own entity, same for different mafia faction if we have more than one.
 
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