I'd prefer to only judge the current administration upon the completion of Trump's term. The following (mostly) concerns Trump's previous administration.
If you ask three economists their opinion concerning which administration did a better job handling the economy (Trump or Biden), you’ll get five different answers. That’s because the health of an economy can be measured in many ways, and pulling one lever often affects others in complex ways. There’s no universal metric, and many policies take years or even decades to reveal their full impact.
Moreover, external factors—such as global events—can significantly affect economic performance. When evaluating a president’s economic record, you have to consider whether they had the luxury of choosing between good and bad options, or if their choices were between two poor ones. This makes the comparison between Trump and Biden’s economic records far more nuanced. Rather than focusing on broad metrics, I suggest evaluating the specific policies of each administration and considering their impact on different groups. For example, Trump canceled the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), engaged in a trade war with China, and replaced NAFTA with the USMCA. Biden, on the other hand, passed the Inflation Reduction Act and the Infrastructure Bill. Additionally, both presidents had to respond to global events like the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, which heavily impacted energy prices and drove inflation.
It’s also important to recognize global economic trends. For instance, inflation has been high worldwide, not just in the U.S., so it wouldn’t be fair to attribute that solely to any one administration. However, we can compare how the U.S. fared in relation to other countries to assess relative performance.
Under these circumstances, I would argue that Biden has done a better job of managing the economy. While Trump had to navigate the early days of the pandemic, his policies—especially the trade war and tax cuts—began to show cracks even before COVID-19 hit. The pandemic exacerbated these issues, but Biden has done a commendable job of stabilizing the economy, addressing inflation, and guiding recovery efforts through targeted legislation like the Infrastructure Bill.
But again, it’s essential to take a closer look at specific policies and their broader impacts on various sectors of the economy, whether it’s trade, inflation, job creation, or something else.
Addendum
Concerning Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs. The most charitable interpretation I can fathom leans heavily on his use of the word “reciprocal.” That is if he is using these tariffs as leverage to get foreign countries to reduce their tariffs on the US, at which time he can repeal the “reciprocal” tariffs. If this has the intended effect, ultimately demand for US made goods will increase and with the removal of the reciprocal tariffs prices of imports will return to normal and US manufacturing will “win.” Fed Chairman Powell has indicated he sees these tariffs as “transitory” and does not plan to adjust interest rates on their account, which indicates to me that they might see it this way as well: a short-term ploy with the ultimate goal of reducing international trade barriers.
If you ask three economists their opinion concerning which administration did a better job handling the economy (Trump or Biden), you’ll get five different answers. That’s because the health of an economy can be measured in many ways, and pulling one lever often affects others in complex ways. There’s no universal metric, and many policies take years or even decades to reveal their full impact.
Moreover, external factors—such as global events—can significantly affect economic performance. When evaluating a president’s economic record, you have to consider whether they had the luxury of choosing between good and bad options, or if their choices were between two poor ones. This makes the comparison between Trump and Biden’s economic records far more nuanced. Rather than focusing on broad metrics, I suggest evaluating the specific policies of each administration and considering their impact on different groups. For example, Trump canceled the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), engaged in a trade war with China, and replaced NAFTA with the USMCA. Biden, on the other hand, passed the Inflation Reduction Act and the Infrastructure Bill. Additionally, both presidents had to respond to global events like the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, which heavily impacted energy prices and drove inflation.
It’s also important to recognize global economic trends. For instance, inflation has been high worldwide, not just in the U.S., so it wouldn’t be fair to attribute that solely to any one administration. However, we can compare how the U.S. fared in relation to other countries to assess relative performance.
Under these circumstances, I would argue that Biden has done a better job of managing the economy. While Trump had to navigate the early days of the pandemic, his policies—especially the trade war and tax cuts—began to show cracks even before COVID-19 hit. The pandemic exacerbated these issues, but Biden has done a commendable job of stabilizing the economy, addressing inflation, and guiding recovery efforts through targeted legislation like the Infrastructure Bill.
But again, it’s essential to take a closer look at specific policies and their broader impacts on various sectors of the economy, whether it’s trade, inflation, job creation, or something else.
Addendum
Concerning Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs. The most charitable interpretation I can fathom leans heavily on his use of the word “reciprocal.” That is if he is using these tariffs as leverage to get foreign countries to reduce their tariffs on the US, at which time he can repeal the “reciprocal” tariffs. If this has the intended effect, ultimately demand for US made goods will increase and with the removal of the reciprocal tariffs prices of imports will return to normal and US manufacturing will “win.” Fed Chairman Powell has indicated he sees these tariffs as “transitory” and does not plan to adjust interest rates on their account, which indicates to me that they might see it this way as well: a short-term ploy with the ultimate goal of reducing international trade barriers.
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