Maybe but it's not sure
First : The fact that it's the same end as Oden vs Kaido.
Kaido's last attack against Luffy triggered a FB about his Victory against Oden
For this reason we can assume Luffy's last attack could have beat Kaido as After Paradise Totsuka Oden could have won unfortunately both fight were interrupted.
Moreover if Luffy's defeat was sure it wouldn't make sense to put this FB there
2nd : During Luffy vs Katakuri
Katakuri could tank a Black mamba pretty fine and still looked in good shape however he couldn't tank the King Cobra
Luffy could tank the first buzz cut mochi but the last one Ko'ed him (like Luffy could tank the first Roaring TB but probably not the second one)
It's not even the first instance were a character could tank an attack fine the first Time but the exact same one or a similar attack back to back put him down
3rd : Both Luffy and Kaido used their strongest attack known, both could tank it once but the second one Ko'ed Luffy
Kaido got white eyes and fell from SKG but could get UP from it quickly
Luffy got white eyes and fell but could get UP quickly
Those two attack got the exact same effects the first time and were both reused as finishers it's not a stretch to said that the second one could have Koed Kaido
Saying Kaido could have tank the second one as fine as the second one is dumb as both Kaido and Luffy were doing cumulative damages
I will wait for the next chapter before going a definitive opinion