Sadly, no, smoker doesn't fit.
Listen I know that you guys don't want to listen to it but there is a reason why I spend month on working on a theory for Carrot to prove that she was worthy. And this theory can be applied to ANY character. And doesn't fit, at least RIGHT NOW:
Simply because he doesn't fit some of the 7 most important rules:
- Be alive
- Be relevant to the story
- Be unique and have a unique ability
- Be free from faction duty or independant
- Be a friend or a false adversary
- Looking and acting toward adventure
- Have a moral Pillar
Those are not created for funzy, they are important because without them, the character simply cannot become a mugiwara. The character must fit ALL the 7 first rules without question.
1. Smoker is alive so that's good
2. Smoker is kiiiiinda relevant to the story, so that's good
3. Smoker's ability and fighting style is unique so that's good
4. Smoker is NOT independant. He is part of the marine. And did not show ANY sign of wanting to get away from it. In fact he did the opposite. Smoker, like Koby, is the character that is meant to change the marines from the INSIDE.
5. Smoker is a false adversary so its good
6. Smoker is NOT looking and acting toward adventure. We Cooooooooooould say that him chasing Luffy is just that, but that's not enough to join the crew. Because if he joins the crew, then what ? No signs of wanting adventure.
7. Smoker do NOT have a moral pillar in anyway. And this is FOUNDAMENTAL to be a strawhat. Its part of the theme of the story, there is no getting around it.
So Smoker lack three points. He is therefore not fit to join.
Now, let's look at Bonney.
1. She is alive, so that's good.
2. She is relevant to the story so that's also good
3. Her ability is unique so that's perfect
4. She is a captain so NOT independant Buuuuuuuut you could argue that she wasn't seen with her crew since the timeskip, so they might have disbanded. So its good.
5. She is an ally, so that's cool.
6. There is no sign of wanting adventure for her, but she was a pirate crew so you cooooould argue that she wanted adventure anyway.
7. She has a moral pillar so that's also good.
Bonney therefore check all the first 7 rules. Like Yamato (before her choice) and Carrot
So now, we must look at what I named "the 12 pillars".
- The quirk. 1 point because it's quite common in One Piece.
- The fighting skill 2 Points, event tho it's also quite common.
- The antagonistic introduction. 2 Points because it impact the narration interestingly.
- The multi layered characterization. 3 Points, Interesting but quite common.
- The symbolic reach. 4 Points because it impacts the storytelling in an interesting way.
- The Strong character arc. 4 Points because strong character arc are in fact quite rare.
- The hint of a recrutment. 4 Points. I'll explain in detail what this parameter is about.
- The hint of 3 driving forces. 5 Points, you will understand why.
- The post. 5 Points, this is one of the most important parameter
- The Shining Nakama Action. 6 Points, this is the icing on top of the wedding cake
- The Rescue. 10 Points, this is a major part of the creation of a strawhat.
- The refusal of the call to adventure. 15 Points because it's THE deal breaker.
I gave a system of point to be fair because not every characters have those. Yamato has 28 points and Carrot has 30 points.
I would gave 27 for Bonney right now.
Yamato (before her choice) lacked a post, the shining nakama action and the refusal
Carrot lacked a strong character arc, the rescue a the refusal
And
Bonney lacks the post, hint of recrutment, the shining nakama action and the refusal
So you all got your answer. To be sure that Bonney will join, look for:
- A refusal of the call for adventure (that can take multiple form, not necessaraly after a demand by Luffy)
- A hint of recrutment, everything that could made us think that Luffy sees Bonney as someone special
- A post or at least hints of a post
- The shining Nakama action, a great action related thematically to the post that would save the situation and be exceptionnal.
If any of those 4 thing appears, Bonney will pass in front of Carrot in term of probabilities.