Who will be the Next Strawhat?


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For me this comment is an agreement with the mission.
Are you sure you want to interpret the scene that way? Because let me be frank: This is a very much important scene, as it indicates the chasm between the WG and Lucci for the later story progression. You might regret not interpreting it differently later on, because it would be a major blow to your own self-perception as experienced analyst.

I am going to switch the next two points so I will first explain the matter regarding Vegapunk being related to Lucci, because this makes things easier to read and you don't have to skip things:

Same thing. You gave an affirmation without proof. So I can disprove it without proof also.
Why are you writing that I have not given adequate proof for my statement? I always give enough analysis for every thought I’m posting here. Have you read one of my last comments, in which I replied to you? If not, I will copy it in here for you to read again:


Here on Egghead we have Dr Vegapunk, whose dream it is for peace to reign over all countries of the world and prevent wars from happening with his inventions and findings, he is producing. On the cover story with Ceasar this is getting clear as the story dives into MADS, which was founded as the “Laboratory of Peace”, with its head inventor being Vegapunk, who made several inventions such as the weapon, which transformed bullets into flowers, or cloning someone. After Stussy was cloned, he even said that “[…] that is a huge step towards world peace!!”. Oda also named chapter 1068 “A Genuis’ dream” and even the entire volume 106 after said chapter, which underlines its importance to the story and the fact that the thematic of Egghead is, in fact “Peace”.

The only thing that stands out is the fact that Vegapunk disregards Jinbe’s concern about one of his inventions as `stuff he should not worry about´. That means Vegapunk is ready to make some `small´ sacrifices if it means that he can reach his own greater goal/dream (chapter 1067).

I hope that this is something, we can agree upon, right?


And now to the fun fact: This is also a reoccurring theme with Lucci, who was once depicted as a small child with an olive-branch (symbol of peace) in his hand, his white pet pigeon Hatori (symbol of peace) next to him and the word “peace” (reference to peace) written on his shirt. Those are three things, which are all referring to the theme of the Egghead arc.

And during the story of Water 7, Lucci even commented on Iceberg, who refused to give the WG the location of the blueprints with: “Yet you would dare to stand in our way? Even now, people over the world being victimized by pirates … and you’re saying you wont help them?”

This tells us how Lucci is thinking. He himself finds it not good that Iceberg refuses to help the people, who are being victimized by pirates. It also shows us what is driving him. Helping people over the world be freed of the pirates, he considers as being all bad.

And now the cool part: Lucci also regards sacrifices as something you have to do, if you want to reach your goal (in his case world peace), just like Vegapunk. Because, he was ready to sacrifice Robin for the greater good of making pirates stop victimizing people. On the Puffing Tom, he even comments on her being born under an unlucky star. Meaning: He thought it was bad that he had to sacrifice Robin, but he needed to do it to acquire world peace.

In their thinking Vegapunk and Lucci have the same goal and approach it in the same way! Both – Lucci more than Vegapunk - need to realize that you do not have to make sacrifices to reach your goal.

I just noticed that I have to add Lucci’s obvious similarity to Shaka as well to the list, since Shaka works for Vegapunk as Satellite and seems to have a strong bond to him. This would even add more weight to Lucci and Vegapunk’s connection. So, here is the analysis of Shaka and Lucci being counterparts:

First, we have their obvious posture, in which both are often seen shoving their hands into their pockets.



Both have a goal that they are following and are even ready to make sacrifices for it.



Both are very good strategists with their colleagues often times asking them how to proceed, when there is a snag in the plan.



Both of their names refer to a god-like entity: Shaka referring to Buddha Shaka Nyorai, representing the `Good´. And Lucci as a short form for `Lucifer´ as the representation of `Evil´.

What I can also add here is the following observation: Luffy’s main opponent has been Kizaru as of now. They fought and got knocked out recently. Though the admiral is not defeated, yet, and is going to pose a thread towards Luffy’s friends in the upcoming story-progression. So, Luffy’s task will be to defeat Kizaru in the long run and see to his friend’s safety.

Currently however, the story focusses on Bonney, Kuma and their connection to Saturn, as Bonney got really angry at the Gorosei in chapter 1094. And we see her acting on that anger and attacking Saturn. Her anger seems to stem from the fact that it maybe was Saturn, who had ordered Vegapunk to turn Kuma into that unfeeling machine without memory we know today.

Odd is that Luffy does not seem to be focussing on checking on Saturn, since he felt his presence in chapter 1094, but was keeping his focus on Kizaru instead.

Luffy had almost always taken on the main villain, who had been responsible for his new crew mate’s suffering (We had one single exception in the entire story: And this was when Luffy fought Lucci, although the main antagonist for Robin and Franky was Spandam, who made both suffer to the extreme. In this case, the main opponent of Luffy was not the main antagonist, as Lucci obviously needed Spandam as his evil prothesis on the antagonistic side. And we had two `nakama´ who were angry at Spandam, not only one. No one talks about that, though. Odd, huh?).

However, here we see Bonney and her suffering through Saturn, not Kizaru. But obviously Luffy is still not done with Kizaru as the admiral said that he needed a little but would rise again in chapter 1095.

I see here a discrepancy since, Bonney is depicted to us as the one, who is suffering most in the story. But it seems to be not though Luffy’s main opponent.

And then, Luffy is currently not really angry at the admiral, like we have seen him getting in almost every main fight against every main villain, when there was something, he needed to defend (Doflamingo – beating Bellamy; Kaido – Food for his friends, etc.). Luffy still lacks a reason to really go against Kizaru and beat him.

My question here is, as Kizaru is the main opponent of Luffy, what that reason will look like (I have a very good guess at the moment, trust me.). And is that reason to fight related to Vegapunk/Shaka/Lucci as their past has not been revealed to us (I mean Lucci’s past before we saw him training for the WG at age 6) and we are still missing a flashback here. In fact we already have seen Kizaru was having a bond with Sentomaru and Vegapunk. It is also possible that he is also having some ties to Lucci, because as I have mentioned above – Lucci and Vegapunk/Shaka share tremendously many similarities. And we still need to see that flashback of Vegapunk and his past.

It makes me wonder if there is a hidden story behind the arc between Kizaru, Vegapunk/Shaka and Lucci (If I am honest – I’m not wondering anymore, if there is a story behind it, I’m already convinced of that and am just waiting for Oda to reveal it.). Oda also has to reveal, why Lucci got that promotion after he had failed at Enies Lobby and was hunted down by marines. We also do not know what Spandine’s plan back then was.

Vegapunk’s/Shaka's and Lucci’s connection is so heavily indicated that I wonder why someone like you has not noticed it as you analyse things like this as well, right? I barely find a reason to not consider it an actual strong possibility - I would even go as far as calling it best possible option.

If I remember correctly your statement is that he was working secretly as an ally. There is nothing that proves that, so this is wrong until we have an element that proves that it is riight.
I’m sorry, but firstly, I did lay out my analysis for Lucci being on the SHP’s side in my comments. But if you want, I can list them here once more:

  • First, we have that little scene in chapter 1062, in which he questions his mission (we have discussed it before). And with Stussy commenting that he should not do so, we already have the first hint at where the allegiances are lying. Stussy = WG, Lucci = undecided
  • Then we have the fact that Lucci shares so many similarities with Vegapunk and Shaka that I cannot believe this to be not intentional. And if the agent has a history with the doctor, we might as well assume that the relationship with him comes with emotional luggage.
  • Speaking of emotions: We have Lucci’s behavior during the Water 7 and Enies Lobby arc in contrast to his behaviour during Egghead. While he was seen doing everything according to their mission two years ago, here on Egghead Lucci is actively ordering the Seraphim to destroy the Labo-Stratum, even though it was CP0s mission to take care not to do so. Also, he disregarded Akainu’s order to not engage the SHPs and wait for Kizaru. He didn’t listen again and moved forward with his advancement, until Stussy stopped him, forcing Akainu’s order on him. If Lucci is not anymore following orders, than this is a heavy indicator that something is amiss with him as this something is mentally so heavy, it interferes with his mission. (This is also a heavy indicator that their mission is not the highest priority on his list, but something else.)
  • Stussy: Stussy is not on the WG’s side. It was indicated in chapter 1062 with the chasm between Lucci and her in their little talk about their mission and it got obvious as she made him sleep in chapter 1073. With this she was only following Akainu’s order for Lucci not to engage the SHPs and wait for Kizaru. Also, if Stussy was on the side of the SHPs, than she would have refrained from informing Akainu about the SHPs being on Egghead, without blowing her cover. Instead, we see her ordering an agent to inform Akainu proactively in chapter 1069. Because of this, she is directly responsible for the currently 30,000 ships surrounding Egghead and the 9 VA. We do not know how many ships would have come, if she hadn’t informed the navy, but her info increased the might of the army, none the less. You don’t do that, when you are an ally of a person, who just wants to flee. And now we had Lucci, who seemingly attacked Vegapunk and tried to kill the doctor. However, Stussy seemingly protected the Stellar from harm and got shot instead. If she is on the WG’s side, than this is a reason to ease up, since she would have been a danger to Vegapunk and the SHPs anyway. Lucci incapacitating her makes him an ally to the SHPs. Because you can also see the situation that way: Stussy only protected Vegapunk, because the WG needs Punk Records safe and sound in their hands. And Punk Records is nothing more than the Stellar’s brain. So, if he dies, Punk Records is gone, too. Why else would Kizaru state in chapter 1094 “Oopsie. Almost had you there!!” As he had almost hit the Stellar with his beam and not the clouds. He could have killed the Stellar! The Satellites are expandable and need to be killed according to the WG – but not the Stellar. (As a sidenote: Stussy was in the background everytime we saw Lucci in the story since Dressrosa as if she was secretly observing him. And I wonder if that has something to do with York informing the WG about Vegapunk researching the ancient kingdom. She could have let it slip that Lucci has ties to Vegapunk and the Gorosei would make sure he was properly observed.)
  • Lucci tried to kill the Stellar. If he were to kill him, than Punk Records would die with him. This is the most obvious reason, why I think Lucci is not anymore on the side of the WG. Because he was attacking one of the three things everyone else currently working for the WG is to keep safe at all costs! That is their mission! But Lucci was not trying to kill Vegapunk. The WG wants the Stellar alive and Lucci knows that. This is the sole reason he attacked Vegapunk in the first place. He could have gone for Atlas or Edison, who were standing much nearer to him when he did attack. But no, he went straight for the Stellar. Because he knew that Stussy would need to safe Punk Records as it is one of the three things the WG want at all costs. She needed to do that or else the new mission would have been compromised. And look at Sanji, he is not even reacting to Stussy getting hurt – not in a way that we are used to, anyway. Sanji is only doing that, when said woman is in fact an enemy. If you don’t see even that, than you are blind. Lucci just wanted to have Stussy out of the way for Vegapunk and the SHPs to have a better possibility to flee.
  • The alliance: Isn’t it strange that Oda set up the most shocking alliance in all of One Piece only to break it up so Zoro can have a fight, which Oda is not even focussing on? Story-telling-wise this makes no sense and should at least make us wonder about what happened during that little time-skip, don’t you think? All I know is that I was so hyped that we would finally get to see Shaka’s face, after he was shot and we knew Chopper's group was heading down to where he lied. Only to be disappointed after Oda had skipped it altogether. Alone that should tell you that Oda indeed keeps Shaka’s face a secret, because it could reveal too much of the relationsship he has with Lucci.
  • The SHPs are well coordinated. Saturn even commented on it as he stated that “I see… a pirate crew, that cooperates…”. And now I have to ask one question: At what point of the story was the SHP-crew ever coordinated?! They always busted the plans, of whoever made them up. Alone this should ring our bells and tell us that someone is working in the background and has assigned everyone in the team their task. Even Luffy knows what task he needs to fulfil and he tells us what this exactly is in chapter 1094 after Kizaru tells him “Listen, I’m sorry, but if I spend all my time on you, I can’t fulfil my mission…” And Luffy answers to that with “Yeah, but that’s my mission!!!”. Someone has given him and the others each a task, they are following.


Secondly, you have picked up my statement not the way I intended for you to understand: If you cannot disprove my statement (even if there are not enough hints for you to believe it is correct), than my analysis makes my statement a possibility. To be wrong, my analysis has to be proven wrong – from you. If you cannot do it, than please, refer to the outcome of my analysis as `possibility´, not as “wrong”.
 
Its not late considering she will have 2 journeys with the SHs
Not sure where you get 2 journeys from, but even if she gets a dream, which is nothing more than conjecture, she still has no combat ability, no role, and nothing to add to the crew in any way. And even if she had all that, she can't leave Alabasta to become a pirate. Obviously she has to become the Queen. Best case scenario would be sailing with them temporarily again like the baroque works saga until the WG is no longer a threat to her. Vivi has nothing at all going for her and everything possible going against her. She meets none of the criteria for a strawhat and has conflicting loyalties that are 100% unavoidable. Just because she appears to have a significant role in the story in the future doesn't mean she's joining the crew. Vivi for nakama is pure bias and has literally no basis in the story at all.
 

Peroroncino

🅷🅰🅻🅰 🅼🅰🅳🆁🅸🅳
Not sure where you get 2 journeys from, but even if she gets a dream, which is nothing more than conjecture, she still has no combat ability, no role, and nothing to add to the crew in any way. And even if she had all that, she can't leave Alabasta to become a pirate. Obviously she has to become the Queen. Best case scenario would be sailing with them temporarily again like the baroque works saga until the WG is no longer a threat to her. Vivi has nothing at all going for her and everything possible going against her. She meets none of the criteria for a strawhat and has conflicting loyalties that are 100% unavoidable. Just because she appears to have a significant role in the story in the future doesn't mean she's joining the crew. Vivi for nakama is pure bias and has literally no basis in the story at all.
One journey in alabasta and another one now
 
Stop talking to your alt like this!
To predict a strawhat, we need to be aware that there are a set of rule that all the strawhats must fit. After some discussion I've decided to change the lists a little bit and the labels.

I have updated my blog in consequence. Its easier and clearer.

First we must understand that we can't have 200 candidates, so we need to be clear on what were the strawhats before joining and the absolute rules that are necessary to create a strawhat. I call that the 5 golden rules:

5 Golden rules:

A character must:

  1. Be alive
  2. Be relevant to the story
  3. Be unique and have a unique ability
  4. Be a friend or a false adversary
  5. Have a "guide of the will"

Then, we can observe some similarities between the strawhats. They are on a number of 10 major ones:

10 Pillars of construction of a strawhat :

  1. The Fighting skills. 1 Points. It's very common.
  2. The Antagonistic introduction. 2 Points. It impact the narration interestingly.
  3. The Multi layered characterization. 3 Points. Interesting but quite common.
  4. The Symbolic reach. 4 Points. It impacts the storytelling in an interesting way.
  5. The Strong character arc. 5 Points. Strong character arc are in fact quite rare.
  6. Hint of the 2 driving forces. 6 Points. You will understand why.
  7. The Rescue. 7 Points, because it links the character to the strawhats.
  8. The Nakama need. 8 Points, Because it links the character to Luffy.
  9. The Post. 9 Points, this is one of the most important parameter
  10. The Shining Nakama Action. 10 Points. This is the icing on top of the wedding cake

CONCLUSION

From 1 to 10, why this order ?


Each pillar will get the number of point corresponding to its number. The 10th Pillar will get 10 points etc. But why this order and not another one ? Well, like I said, there are pillar that are more important than others. The fighting skill is far less important than a strong character arc for example.

  1. Fighting skill (one fighting still + Combo) - The fighting skill is the most common parameter in One Piece, almost all the relevant character have one. Even the children. So I think its place is in first place with 1 point.
  2. Antagonistic Introduction - The antagonistic introduction is interesting but it is once again very common, but this is this time a little bit more narrative so I think its place is above the fighting skills with 2 points.
  3. Multi layered characterization - We are starting to enter narrative territory. This is the basic of narration so it will be before all the big narrative pillars with 3 points.
  4. Symbolic reach (4 layers) - We are starting to see something that is quite uncommon in term of narration and symbolism. I therefore put this pillar above the multi layered characterization with 4 points.
  5. Strong character arc - Now we are entering deep narrative principle. The strong character arc is something just a few character have. So its place is above the symbolic reach with 5 points.
  6. Hints of two driving forces (Needs / Dream or Desire) - At last we are entering nakama territory with something only very few characters and the strawhats have. It gets 6 fair points.
  7. The Rescue - This is the pillar that link Luffy and the character forever. Its above all the narrative parameters in term of importance with 7 points.
  8. The Nakama Need - We are in the hidden part of the nakama iceberg. The part related to Luffy. It will be above the rescue as the Nakama need has as far as now only been expressed by the strawhats. It gets 8 points
  9. The Post - We are leaving the narrative territory to focus on the Sunny. Only 11 characters has depicted an ability for a post as of now. So this pillar is above almost everything with 9 points
  10. Shining nakama action - This is the icing. Its related to the post, so it absolutely needs to be on top of it. This is the parameter that transforms the character into a real shonen protagonist. It gets all 10 points.
----

Voilà!

If you guy can make a prediction system that is more precise.... be my guest and good luck!
You posted the same things before:sighting:
The way you view the world "he DESTROYED your system" is really representative of the way this forum work and its biggest weakness.

I'm working in a popperian way here. I HOPE to be destroyed. My goal is not to prove that I'm right, the goal is to prove that I'm WRONG and that we can find a better way to come close to the truth and the best system to predict a new strawhat.

If you want clarification, I took the time to link everything to each pages of my blog so you get a bunch of text explaining in detail each point.

If you can find a better way to predict a strawhat, go for it, I'm all ears
No thanks, I'm not interested in enabling your masochism.
 
There isn't a way to quantify the likelyhood of something happening in a fictional story. This is ridiculous.
Why not ?

If we agree that the strawhats are characterized by a set of tool then we can use those set of tool to predict a new strawhat. It will only give us a potentiality but its solid. The two major protagonist during Wano were Carrot and Yamato. Well, this was protrayed also in that classment.

We must understand that this is a tool of prediction in a specific time zone. Meaning that it can evolve with the story.


You posted the same things before
Not really no.
 
Why not ?

If we agree that the strawhats are characterized by a set of tool then we can use those set of tool to predict a new strawhat. It will only give us a potentiality but its solid. The two major protagonist during Wano were Carrot and Yamato. Well, this was protrayed also in that classment.

We must understand that this is a tool of prediction in a specific time zone. Meaning that it can evolve with the story.



Not really no.
Bla bla🙄
Won't join
 
Please apply your supreme knowledge on storytelling probabilities to power scaling and matchups, the boys in the battle dome need your knowledgeable advice more than ever!
This would need too much work. The way the powerscaling is done nowadays is completely wrong. The best way to do it would be with some sort of multidimensional web. You would need to put each characters against each others two time to represent the fact that they are supported by the plot and imagine a scenario each time with each sets of abilities.

You would not really arrive with characters that are better than other but character that have more or less probabilities to be defeated.
 
This would need too much work. The way the powerscaling is done nowadays is completely wrong. The best way to do it would be with some sort of multidimensional web. You would need to put each characters against each others two time to represent the fact that they are supported by the plot and imagine a scenario each time with each sets of abilities.

You would not really arrive with characters that are better than other but character that have more or less probabilities to be defeated.
yes.
Kizaru for nakama!
 
A character must:

  1. Be alive
  2. Be relevant to the story
  3. Be unique and have a unique ability
  4. Be a friend or a false adversary
  5. Have a "guide of the will"
To go through your points

1. Be alive. Really?? Dead characters can’t join? Damn so bad I was really rooting for Roger, I mean wouldn’t it be cool to have the former PK on your crew. This is dumb as F, of course you have to be alive to join. Dead characters can’t join a crew. They are dead. Don’t ever put this point up again.
2. Be relevant to the story Again, really? No shit Sherlock. I thought that all side characters can join. Just hop on to the sunny. Also a lot of characters are relevant to the story but don’t join. Because they are relevant in a different way. What do I mean: Imu, BB, Akainu are all relevant but are antagonist. Momo, Vivi and shirahoshi are relevant but don’t join. They are allies and connected to the Void century. Relevant but not as nakamas.
3. One piece is full of unique abilities. Makes no sense again. Every DF ability is unique. Also Zoro is a sword fighter, there are a lot of those. Sanji fights using his legs, there are a lot of leg based fighters in one piece. Jinbe is a fishmen and doesn’t have a unique ability. Usopp, nough said!
4. Yeah I got say you have to be friends with Luffy to join.
5. Have an inherited will is a theme in one piece we see again and again. I don’t really think it is something you need to have though to join the Strawhats.

I think predicting a new nakama can not be done with a system. Because it is not quantifiable.

At this point it is very unlikely that anyone will join. We are almost at the end of the journey and no new Nakama really fit. The last really good candidate was Yamato on Wano and that didn’t happen. VP or one of the satellites fit the best right now in my opinion. VP has a dream that can only be described as a strawhat dream. VP is to old though and I feel like Lilith fits well with the strawhats. Stussy could be thrown in there in the last moment as a “didn’t expect that did ya” character. Similar what happened with Robin.
Bonney is looking too obvious for me at the moment. That’s why i don’t think she will join.
 
1. Be alive. Really?? Dead characters can’t join? Damn so bad I was really rooting for Roger, I mean wouldn’t it be cool to have the former PK on your crew. This is dumb as F, of course you have to be alive to join. Dead characters can’t join a crew. They are dead. Don’t ever put this point up again.
This is meant to be obvious lol this is a foundamental rule.


2. Be relevant to the story Again, really? No shit Sherlock. I thought that all side characters can join. Just hop on to the sunny. Also a lot of characters are relevant to the story but don’t join. Because they are relevant in a different way. What do I mean: Imu, BB, Akainu are all relevant but are antagonist. Momo, Vivi and shirahoshi are relevant but don’t join. They are allies and connected to the Void century. Relevant but not as nakamas.
Indeed. But we are not yet trying to sort the best candidate yet, we are trying to sort all of the character. And that simple rule allows us to get rid of 500+ characters


3. One piece is full of unique abilities. Makes no sense again. Every DF ability is unique. Also Zoro is a sword fighter, there are a lot of those. Sanji fights using his legs, there are a lot of leg based fighters in one piece. Jinbe is a fishmen and doesn’t have a unique ability. Usopp, nough said!
Yes, devil fruit are unique abilities thats why I count them as unique. But if you read the definition on the blog, you would know that this rule applies to the already existing strawhat. Meaning that a character needs to be original for himself AND compared to the already existing strawhat. Jinbe is unique, he has a unique way of using fishmen karate that even the most skilled fishmen don't use. Same for Sanji, the way he fight is unique. And same for Zoro.


4. Yeah I got say you have to be friends with Luffy to join.
Logical


5. Have an inherited will is a theme in one piece we see again and again. I don’t really think it is something you need to have though to join the Strawhats.
It is imperative. Like you said, this is a theme of One Piece. This means that the protagonist of the show must embodie that thematic. each one of theme. Simply because the strawhats are a bunch of found family with all separated goals.


I think predicting a new nakama can not be done with a system. Because it is not quantifiable.
It is.


At this point it is very unlikely that anyone will join.
I agree.


The last really good candidate was Yamato on Wano and that didn’t happen.
Nop, it was Carrot. Yamato was meant to stay on Wano from the start. Remember ? Subversive affirmation.


I feel like Lilith fits well with the strawhats
"Fitting well" is to loose. We need precision here.
 
This is meant to be obvious lol this is a foundamental rule.



Indeed. But we are not yet trying to sort the best candidate yet, we are trying to sort all of the character. And that simple rule allows us to get rid of 500+ characters



Yes, devil fruit are unique abilities thats why I count them as unique. But if you read the definition on the blog, you would know that this rule applies to the already existing strawhat. Meaning that a character needs to be original for himself AND compared to the already existing strawhat. Jinbe is unique, he has a unique way of using fishmen karate that even the most skilled fishmen don't use. Same for Sanji, the way he fight is unique. And same for Zoro.



Logical



It is imperative. Like you said, this is a theme of One Piece. This means that the protagonist of the show must embodie that thematic. each one of theme. Simply because the strawhats are a bunch of found family with all separated goals.



It is.



I agree.



Nop, it was Carrot. Yamato was meant to stay on Wano from the start. Remember ? Subversive affirmation.



"Fitting well" is to loose. We need precision here.
Bla bla bla bla. I am right you are wrong. Blabla bla subversive affirmation bla Blabla bla carrot was meat to join bla bla bla.
She won’t join and never was meant to. She is back on Zou byyeeee
 
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