Lol you are not comprehending how this works. You are also breaking your own logic. Using your logic, Wano is "1" route on Grand line, which it is. This means Kid, Law, AND Luffy all would arrive to Lodestar from the same route, not 3. If you disagree with this, and magically think they are coming from 3 islands, then you cannot disagree to the idea that one of Luffy's 3 routes from Egghead or Fullalead would put him near Elbaf, an Island that is closer to Lodestar than Egghead is. Conversely, if you think they are all coming from the same route, then Elbaf is happening by default.
The sad thing is, you believe Elbaf is happening only if Shanks loses, thereby breaking your logic entirely lmao. Good luck being this deluded for no reason but to be contrarian