I agree with you, but what makes me believe that we'll get the chapter a bit on the earlier side this time is that TCB scans have their own raw providers now.
So they probably get the raws roughly around the same time that we get our detailed summary (Thursday) or even before.
The fact that they've specified the date as 25th Dec. could mean that their source have approved of giving them the raws a day or two before it.
But I do agree with what you're saying.