At this time of epidemic i know from my past analysis incumbent always win.
Biden is not really the candidate Dem hope for , Trump can still recoupe this declare his victory over the virus if it gets controlled.
Economy side, i admit i was tad harsh on him cant really do much with the virus stuff.
The race will be tight in my opinion , hopefully biden doesnt go with "i am obama's man ". The challenge will be post pandemic scenrio i don't trust trump with recession period.