There are a few basic options that I've heard mentioned. I'll cover the cases (as best as I understand them) for and against the characters that I think are plausible at this point in time:
The order they appear is how likely I think they are as Jack's opponent.
Characters that I've heard about, but don't currently consider plausible:
I think I'll give all the above 4 <= 15% chances.
Inuarashi
Yamato
Killer
Law
Others
For the other characters I didn't treat above like Kidd, Linlin, etc., I'll give <= 3% chances.
Conclusions
It's most likely Inuarashi or Yamato that defeats Jack. I'll give their combined chances >= 67%. Of the two of them, Inuarashi is my favourite. I don't intuitively feel like he's twice as likely to defeat Jack as Yamato though.
My main issue is that I don't know how much stock I place in the meta narrative arguments (Strawhat patterns, expectations from previous arcs, the traditional formula, etc). The meta narrative predicted a few things regarding Zoro:
Prediction #2 was a collosal failure, but the jury is still out on prediction #1.
If Zoro starts fighting King or Marco gets defeated, I'll update towards Yamato beating Jack.
If Marco defeats King, Zoro leaves the Live Floor without fighting King, or Zoro fights Kaido again, I'll update towards Inuarashi defeating Jack.
Unfortunately, King will probably only be defeated after Jack, but a Marco defeat could still provide useful information.
That said, the narrative arguments haven't had perfect track records either.
On Zoro, the narrative predicted:
#1 and #2 were successful, but when I expected #3 to happen (Zoro replicated a feat that only Oden had previously performed in scarring Kaido) it did not. Unless Zoro faces Kaido again, I can't be that confident in the narrative based arguments.
To summarise:
Something like the above I guess.
- Inuarashi
- Yamato
- Killer
- Law
The order they appear is how likely I think they are as Jack's opponent.
Characters that I've heard about, but don't currently consider plausible:
- Jimbe
- He's currently engaged with Who's Who and has been fighting him for over an hour.
- Who's Who is fighting him in Base and hasn't been pushed to his Hybrid form yet.
- Who's Who appears to be his arc opponent.
- Luffy
- He's plummeting to the bottom of the sea.
- When he returns to battle, it'll be vs Kaido.
- Zoro
- He's not in fighting shape currently.
- If he does start fighting again, it'll likely be against King or a second round with Kaido.
- Nekomamushi
- Inuarashi asked the Scabbards to head on and decided to stop Jack himself.
- He's on his way to fight Perospero.
I think I'll give all the above 4 <= 15% chances.
Inuarashi
The Case For
The Case Against
Conclusions
I think Inuarashi is the singular candidate with the highest likelihood. If I had to bet on someone defeating Jack, I'll pick him.
He has a very strong narrative to defeat Jack.
In fact, Inuarashi is the only character who has an extensive grudge and narrative build-up for his conflict with Jack:
My God, the amount of narrative build up for Jack to be defeated at the hands of one of the Dukes is something else. And people want Oda to throw all of that away? For a fight that has zero setup? Because their headcanons do not agree with what the narrative suggests?
In terms of feel good storytelling and a compelling narrative, Inuarashi makes the most sense to defeat Jack.
He gets bonus points as well, because he's actually currently fighting Jack.
In fact, Inuarashi is the only character who has an extensive grudge and narrative build-up for his conflict with Jack:
- Jack attacked his country
- He fought Jack for 5 Days with Nekomamushi
- Jack laid waste to his country and his people with poison gas
- Jack tortured him
- He lost one of his legs to Jack's torture
- Together with Nekomamushi, he defeated Jack in Sulong.
- Jack sought the Dukes and Raizo out to finish things with them.
- He specifically prevented Black Maria from going after the Scabbards so that he could deal with them himself
- He defeated several Mink soldiers to get to them.
- Inuarashi stayed behind to stop Jack and prevent new victims:
My God, the amount of narrative build up for Jack to be defeated at the hands of one of the Dukes is something else. And people want Oda to throw all of that away? For a fight that has zero setup? Because their headcanons do not agree with what the narrative suggests?
In terms of feel good storytelling and a compelling narrative, Inuarashi makes the most sense to defeat Jack.
He gets bonus points as well, because he's actually currently fighting Jack.
The Case Against
Inuarashi might not be strong enough. The Dukes were unable to overcome Jack over the course of 5 days even while each Duke only fought for 12 hours and Jack was fighting non stop. This was while both Dukes were fully healthy, and now, Inuarashi is missing a leg.
Nekomamushi (his equal) is set up to fight Perospero who appears to be weaker than Jack.
He's not a Strawhat, and it might be the case that only the Strawhats defeat the Beast Pirate executives.
It may be the case that all the Scabbards will be defeated. Even if that is true, Kinemon defeated his arc opponent in Kanjuro before Kaido bonked him, so it's not the case that all the Scabbards are destined to lose to their arc opponents.
Nekomamushi (his equal) is set up to fight Perospero who appears to be weaker than Jack.
He's not a Strawhat, and it might be the case that only the Strawhats defeat the Beast Pirate executives.
It may be the case that all the Scabbards will be defeated. Even if that is true, Kinemon defeated his arc opponent in Kanjuro before Kaido bonked him, so it's not the case that all the Scabbards are destined to lose to their arc opponents.
Conclusions
I think Inuarashi is the singular candidate with the highest likelihood. If I had to bet on someone defeating Jack, I'll pick him.
Yamato
The Case For
The Case Against
Conclusions
She's the second most likely candidate after Inuarashi.
I would still bet on Inuarashi over her. Inuarashi has a very strong narrative to defeat Jack and Yamato has a very strong narrative to face Kaido. I think the strength of their narrative should take precedence.
She's a prospective Strawhat and fits to defeat an executive of the Beast Pirate has one.
She's the same age as Jack, and considering that Jack appears to have been on Wano 20 years ago, she might have grown up with him.
She might be on the same floor as Jack:
The Beast Pirate fodder seem to believe that she's carrying Momonosuke:
If Jack is informed of this, he might head over to face her after he deals with Inuarashi.
She's the same age as Jack, and considering that Jack appears to have been on Wano 20 years ago, she might have grown up with him.
She might be on the same floor as Jack:
The Beast Pirate fodder seem to believe that she's carrying Momonosuke:
If Jack is informed of this, he might head over to face her after he deals with Inuarashi.
The Case Against
She has no actual narrative to face Jack. Her growing up with Jack is essentially headcanon and there's been no indication of it in the manga.
Black Maria is also near Yamato in age (29), though there's admittedly no indication that she was with the Beast Pirates 20 years ago.
All her narrative is to face Kaido. See:
It feels like Kaido will be her main fight this arc and not Jack.
Black Maria is also near Yamato in age (29), though there's admittedly no indication that she was with the Beast Pirates 20 years ago.
All her narrative is to face Kaido. See:
It feels like Kaido will be her main fight this arc and not Jack.
Conclusions
She's the second most likely candidate after Inuarashi.
I would still bet on Inuarashi over her. Inuarashi has a very strong narrative to defeat Jack and Yamato has a very strong narrative to face Kaido. I think the strength of their narrative should take precedence.
Killer
The Case Against
The Case Against
Conclusions
This is pretty unlikely as a matchup. I'll give this <= 10% chances.
If Jack defeats Inuarashi and Killer defeats Hawkins, Killer could fight Jack afterwards.
Both of them use scythes as they're main weapons.
Both of them use scythes as they're main weapons.
The Case Against
There is no narrative suggesting this matchup. Killer actually has narrative setup for his battle with Hawkins, and Hawkins may be his main fight this arc.
Killer is not a Strawhat, so there is no sort of meta narrative to suggest that he should defeat one of the Beast Pirate executives.
Killer is not a Strawhat, so there is no sort of meta narrative to suggest that he should defeat one of the Beast Pirate executives.
Conclusions
This is pretty unlikely as a matchup. I'll give this <= 10% chances.
Law
The Case Against
The Case Against
Conclusions
Really unlikely, I'll give this <= 5% chances.
If Inuarashi defeats Jack he and Yamato are the only people not engaged in any matchup and are free to deal with him.
The Case Against
He's way too important for his 1 vs 1 fight this arc to be Jack. As a fighter, he's far more capable than Sanji, so the chances of him getting a 1 vs 1 against an opponent inferior to Sanji's are miniscule.
There is no narrative for this matchup.
Law is actually heading to fight Big Mom, and there's not much reason to think that he'll change course to fight someone as irrelevant as Jack.
There is no narrative for this matchup.
Law is actually heading to fight Big Mom, and there's not much reason to think that he'll change course to fight someone as irrelevant as Jack.
Conclusions
Really unlikely, I'll give this <= 5% chances.
Others
For the other characters I didn't treat above like Kidd, Linlin, etc., I'll give <= 3% chances.
Conclusions
It's most likely Inuarashi or Yamato that defeats Jack. I'll give their combined chances >= 67%. Of the two of them, Inuarashi is my favourite. I don't intuitively feel like he's twice as likely to defeat Jack as Yamato though.
My main issue is that I don't know how much stock I place in the meta narrative arguments (Strawhat patterns, expectations from previous arcs, the traditional formula, etc). The meta narrative predicted a few things regarding Zoro:
- His arc opponent will be King.
- He's a swordsman and Kaido's strongest subordinate.
- He wouldn't fight Kaido.
- He almost never has serious fights with the main arc antagonist.
Prediction #2 was a collosal failure, but the jury is still out on prediction #1.
If Zoro starts fighting King or Marco gets defeated, I'll update towards Yamato beating Jack.
If Marco defeats King, Zoro leaves the Live Floor without fighting King, or Zoro fights Kaido again, I'll update towards Inuarashi defeating Jack.
Unfortunately, King will probably only be defeated after Jack, but a Marco defeat could still provide useful information.
That said, the narrative arguments haven't had perfect track records either.
On Zoro, the narrative predicted:
- Zoro fighting Kaido.
- Zoro giving Kaido a new scar.
- Kaido comparing Zoro to Oden.
- Kaido acknowledging Zoro as the monster Samurai on par with Oden.
#1 and #2 were successful, but when I expected #3 to happen (Zoro replicated a feat that only Oden had previously performed in scarring Kaido) it did not. Unless Zoro faces Kaido again, I can't be that confident in the narrative based arguments.
To summarise:
- Inuarashi: >= 40%
- Yamato >= 27%
- Luffy, Zoro, Jimbe, Nekomamushi: <= 15%
- Killer: <= 10%
- Law: <= 5%
- Rest: <= 3%
Something like the above I guess.