I say Kaido because he is resilient to heat, was down there for less time, and can likely breathe underwater since he is a Fish Fish user assuming the eeuption launched him to sea
BM.
She has redeeming qualities while Kaido has non. Kaido was already defeated in the past and still carried on. If Kaido survives he would have to become an obstacle again. BM on the other hand can be made an ally.
Oda has no real use for them so they probably died.
While there is some narrative value in BM regarding Elbaf, it can be also done without her surviving Wano.
On the other hand, both may have survived if there is any use of them coming back.
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