Yes he can. Kaido one shot speed blitzed Luffy in g4 that one time remember?
You are ignoring the fact that Kaido was fighting in Dragon form for a lot of that G4 shit.
Also this isnt a sport. If Luffy isnt hurting kaido, thats the end of that.
And dont forget that Dragon form kaodo was Also getting tossed around by the scabbards. Are the scabbards therefore also stronger than Kaido simply because Nekomamushi was upper cutting DRAGON FORM kaido and sending him back
Luffy was enraged and plot nerfed to hype Kaido with that one shot, not using FS or knowing about adv CoC. It was also bad choreography to have non flying Kaido Raime Hakke land against bound man. Luffy didn't have the means to DAMAGE Kaido before learning barrier haki, so that round 1 is like fighting a logia without haki.
Kaido's dragon form is not weak, and bound man was busting base Kaido too.
He was hurting Kaido, not enough in the time frame, but take away stamina issues and look at STRENGTH and you will see
Kaido was fighting 9 scabbards and many of them had direct counters to his abilities and all of them had ryuo.
Of the SNs, only Luffy had ryuo at the beginning (the bare minimum to fight Kaido and 3 of them came completely unprepared and Zoro was reliant on enma to channel ryuo at the beginning of the fight).
Kaido turned around that fight against the scabbards through strength, he turned around the fight against Luffy through stamina.