It's most likely Luffy. If Hawkins base his chance a someone dying it's most likely the main cast of the opposite side. Hawkins was sure to win because he knew Luffy chance of dying were great (Luffy was certainly meant to die when falling into Wano sea)
But Luffy always has the power to trick the future.
But Luffy always has the power to trick the future.
Luffy chances with Zoro 19% without him 1%