Oda the author is the only person who has control over what happens in the manga, if the manga says one thing or goes in one direction, whatever arguments or theories we as the readers come up with alternative or different to the manga won't change that fact. That's why fanfiction exists.
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Sanji vs Katakuri was a desire that was pushed heavily by the fans rather than Oda himself-with very little support from the manga, and it didn't end up happening. Carrot for Straw Hat is going in the same direction.
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Not for a arc as a whole though, which is what all straw hats who joined were able to achieve before joining. It will come? When? I've never heard of a straw hat joining to get character development and focus after the climax of the conflict in a arc has already passed.
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This whole wall of text (yes, i did read it all), isn't even a theory or argument. Its just endless rambling of excuses of assumptions. The only thing you have told me through this wall of text is that Carrot might have just been nothing more than an character created out of nowhere from the top of Oda's head, who was all so happy to write her into the story, until Oda didn't-whether its because Oda made a mistake, forgot about Carrot or got bored of her altogether-we don't know.
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And how exactly does this help Carrot's case in joining the crew? Perospero was essentially saying that some people just aren't cut out for it. And Carrot losing to him proved his point. It also proved Pedro's point that everyone had to wait for their time to shine, just like Pedro who was refused by Roger to join his crew and was only able to shine decades later by blowing himself up.
Every member of the Straw Hat crew was extra-ordinary before they joined, but still had to improve themselves further for 2 years to survive the New World. Carrot lacks both, she is both ordinary and also didn't train in a 2 year time skip.
We are well past the point for weak characters to get stronger, that was supposed to happen in the time skip.
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Well if Perospero isn't Carrot's personal main antagonist then who is, or are you saying that Carrot doesn't have one? No Straw Hat who joined didn't have a personal main antagonist.
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if you say that Perospero defeating Carrot off panel was meaningless then you probably also mean that Carrot isn't important and is worthless. Which Straw Hat ever lost their introduction or first important fight off screened? Zoro vs Mihawk wasn't of screened, Ussop vs Kuro and the Black Cat Pirates wasn't off screened, Sanji vs Pearl wasn't off screened, Nami vs Buggy wasn't off screened, Chopper vs Wapol wasn't off screened, Robin vs Crocodile wasn't off screened, Franky vs Rob Lucci wasn't off screened, Brook vs Ryuma wasn't off screened and Jinbe vs Akainu wasn't off screened either.
Why is Carrot vs Perospero off screened unlike the rest of the Straw Hats' important first fights and why is that okay?
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The difference here is that with the exception of Zoro vs Mihawk (whereby Zoro lost after asking for no interference in his fight
explicitly, who Luffy intervened after Zoro lost anyway by trying to punch Mihawk), Luffy has
always intervened to help their crewmembers' fights and struggles. Luffy didn't intervene in Zoro vs Mihawk because he was listening to Zoro, but he still intervened when Zoro was defeated since he saw it happen. For Carrot, Luffy wasn't even there to see her defeat against Perospero, much less help Carrot beat Perospero. He was absent the whole time.
The clear issue here is that Luffy not only does not recognize nor care for carrot's struggle and revenge for Pedro. He wasn't even there to see it happen.
Luffy intervened in Zoro vs Mihawk, he helped Sanji protect the baratie by taking on Don Krieg, he helped protect Ussop's village by taking on Kuro, he helped free nami's village by taking down Arlong, he helped Chopper protect a flag and saving him from being eaten by Wapol, Luffy waged war against the WG for Robin's freedom, he helped Franky by saving him from Rob Lucci so Franky can take his revenge on Spandam, he helped to get Brook's shadow back by taking on Moria, he helped free Jinbe so he could help Whitebeard and participate in the war.
Why hasn't luffy helped getting revenge for Carrot by taking down Persopero himself? Why hasn't Luffy protected Carrot when she was losing to Perospero? Why wasn't Luffy there to see here defeat. Why was it Nekomamushi who beat Perospero and not Luffy? Why didn't Luffy comfort Carrot after she lost to Perospero for the second and final time?
Its because Luffy doesn't know and doesn't care, the complete opposite for every other straw hat and their main villains'.
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According to you, not to Oda and not to the manga. Every Straw hat who joined got their own extensive multiple chapter flashback, some times even more than one like Sanji. Carrot got none. We only got one panel of Pedro giving Carrot her electro claws, one panel, not one page, not one chapter and certainly not multiple long chapters for the rest of the straw hats, where they actually got longer and deeper for the later straw hats who joined. Carrot's past is shown shorter than even Ussop's, who had to be compensated in the anime by giving a additional flashback of Luffy and Yassop, ussop's father, and as well as the Daddy Masterson filler character to make up for Ussop.
The only thing we know about Carrot is that Pedro gave her electro claws, that's it. Flashbacks are used to explain a Straw Hat member's past and their reasons and motivations for their dreams and goals. Without a proper flashback Carrot has no solid lasting goal or dream. She wanted to go on adventure and get revenge for pedro, and both of them have been achieved, which is why she isn't suitable to join the crew as she has no further reasons, goals or dreams to pursue.
What drive she had in the present story, they have already been used up and served their purpose. Wanted revenge for Pedro? Perospero is already defeated by nekomamushi. Wanted to go on an adventure? Already went to WCI.
Carrot's flashback is too short and useless to create a goal and dream out of it. And without goals or dreams there is no reason to join Luffy's crew.
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Laying low for what exactly, just to pop up on the ship at the very end of the Wano Arc when everything is all over, after disappearing for the majority of the arc? Oda isn't doing the minimum with carrot, he's doing nothing with Carrot at all. As i see it, he's been trying to write her out of the story to not return ever since Wano started.
Doing nothing and the minimum (if you can even call it that), is not subtlety, its called doing nothing at all. One Piece is a series about telling stories, its not a find Where's Wally puzzle book. The only thing that Oda has told us about Carrot is that she isn't important and doesn't matter, whether its now or later.
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Maybe, might, if i'm right, if we are lucky? Why such vagueness and lack of confidence?
So what you are saying is Oda will do a repeat of what Carrot has already done and that is have Carrot disappear for a majority of a arc and have her reappear at the end of the arc to do something major that will somehow make up for everything missing? What is this major thing exactly? Will it make up for her lack of panel time in Wano? Will it give her a real backstory flashback? Will it be iconic, memorable and worth the payoff of having been missing for so long? Please do explain as I'm curious since everyone complained about Oden's flashback being poor since it came out of nowhere with no setup and was so forced in and unsatisfying to read. Oden's sacrifice couldn't save his shitty character and writing. That's where your hinting Carrot's time is likely come about and also telling me that somehow it will be different and better when Oda already fucked that up when he tried it with Oden. Or are you telling me its gonna be like Pekoms where he sacrifices himself in the end in a moment of glory after being absent for the most of WCI, never to to return to the story again?
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What are these clues exactly?
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Bruh no offense, but if you need a whole fucking blog to successfully explain why Carrot will join the crew and can't explain it in a few sentences or one paragraph then its probably not worth reading in the first place, ever heard of summaries?

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Storytelling analysis is analyzing what is already happening in the story, what is available from the story and drawing conclusions from there, if its not drawing from the book, its source and available existing canon material then its not storytelling analysis, it's just theories that have no obligation nor guarantee to happen or come true.
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So what is Carrot's story supposed to be then?