Only hint so far is the scabbards failing, not the whole raid. At the moment, the only thing I really forsee happening is Orochi does something drastic that forces Kaido and a few others to go to mainland Wano and continue the war there, while others stay on Onigashima and keep fighting.
I personally don't expect the entire raid to fail at this point, too much escalation to have to reescalate again if it fails.