It's not fair to compare a 12 people game with a 50 people game, the maths will barely shift any way.
Simple math from a 50 man game with 11 scum (39 town, 11 scum)
No Lynch Day 1.
Day 2 38 Town 11 scum = 28.95% chance
Day 3 36 town 11 scum = 30.55% chance
Lynch Day 1
Day 2 37 Town 11 scum = 29.72% chance
Day 3 35 Town 11 scum = 31.42% chance
So as you can see odds favour always lynched,
which is less than 1%
You are a sneaky Wolf Mathematician