Who will be the Next Strawhat?


  • Total voters
    506
Those are not statistics, its just a number seeking mindset.
Of course, I am seeking numbers, whenever I can. It would be silly of me not to do so. Would you rather have your doctor telling you that – yes, if you want that drug, it has side effects, which can be lethal, but the rate of survival is higher. Or would you rather have your doctor telling you that - yes, that drug has side effects, which were lethal for 49 % of the patients. Numbers can actually really point out connections and relations between certain things. They also can reflect tendencies very nicely. Why do you find that problematic?

Even you are working with numbers to a little extent. Or haven’t you written that you have checked 1000 characters in One Piece and only 10 or 11 checked all your pillars? With this way you statistically showed us how important you think your pillars are. And this is totally fine and good! I probably would have done the same in your stead - used numbers.

A friendly reminder: You have not commented on me telling you that I believe you had not read the comment of Oda in that SBS about the Gorowase. Have you done so by now?

We could make a bet out of it to see whose way is more reliable and predicted the 11th SHP first. This would be the ultimate challange for our concepts. For a wager I support the idea of putting simply our honor at risk, since I noticeed you being reluctant to risk something. What I mean by it is: The one who lost needs to admit that they lost.
 
It would be silly of me not to do so.
No it would not.


– yes, if you want that drug, it has side effects, which can be lethal, but the rate of survival is higher. Or would you rather have your doctor telling you that - yes, that drug has side effects, which were lethal for 49 % of the patients. Numbers can actually really point out connections and relations between certain things. They also can reflect tendencies very nicely. Why do you find that problematic?
The problems are not the numbers mate. The problem is the reasonning when you use those number. What you are doing here is exactly what complotist are doing when they are seeking number in random things to prove their theories.


Even you are working with numbers to a little extent. Or haven’t you written that you have checked 1000 characters in One Piece and only 10 or 11 checked all your pillars?
Yes, and I proceed "SCIENTIFICALLY" (quotes because its not really scientific work, only the reasonning is). My goal was not to prove a theory but to disprove it.


A friendly reminder: You have not commented on me telling you that I believe you had not read the comment of Oda in that SBS about the Gorowase. Have you done so by now?
I've read it. Many, many years ago. And it only shows Oda loves to play with his fan and stay ambiguous, it doesn't prove a thing.


We could make a bet out of it to see whose way is more reliable and predicted the 11th SHP first
I won't bet because I think that no strawhat will join the crew.
 
Soyface selfie is all I can offer, unfortunately. But I will change my PFP to that for a month if he doesn't join. And I will change my sig to anything you want, so long as it isn't ban worthy.
:suresure:Soyface selfie is wonderful - but I don't want to force you to submit private details and your face is a very private part of you. 😉

I would however like the idea with the signature. For me it would be my avi.

And no, I do not deign to make you change your signature to something that I would find degrading, or something like that. Therefore, I think we both could maybe agree to this:
The chosen profile pictures/signatures for both sides may not contain demeaning depictions or texts towards/of any person or character and are not allowed to have political implications, violence or sexualized content (e.g., Party X will win the election!; Luffy is “insert insult”; Women are citizen of second class; depiction of a naked people; etc.) – You know – the usual… .

Good?
 
No it would not.
Why not? :suresure:


The problems are not the numbers mate. The problem is the reasonning when you use those number. What you are doing here is exactly what complotist are doing when they are seeking number in random things to prove their theories.
No, the problem here is that I put more weight into the Gorowase than you. I think it is a very strong hint and that we need to take it into consideration. You put little weight into it and disregard it as unimportant. And this is ok for me. You and I can think what we want.

But: In the end, only Oda can decide if me laying more weight into it than you was right or not. If Lucci does not join, than you can compare me to a complotist - not before.


Yes, and I proceed "SCIENTIFICALLY" (quotes because its not really scientific work, only the reasonning is). My goal was not to prove a theory but to disprove it.
Ok, you need to stop there and explain for a moment in detail what you are meaning by: "Yes, and I proceed "SCIENTIFICALLY" (quotes because its not really scientific work, only the reasonning is)."


I've read it. Many, many years ago. And it only shows Oda loves to play with his fan and stay ambiguous, it doesn't prove a thing.
I am other opinion. Again, this is me putting more weight into it than you - so a totally subjective disagreement. It does not make sense arguing over that.


I won't bet because I think that no strawhat will join the crew.
This statement doesn't add up with what you wrote a few pages ago in this thread here. Because, you stated that you believed that if Oda plans to add one more crew member Carrot has a good chance to join later on. This was from you, right?: "So her chances are pretty high IF Oda plans to add another strawhat, if not her chances are low. " So, that makes you undecided in regards to if someone will join. And this would make more sense, since why else would you stuff so much work into a project, if you believed that no one else would join. Why make a prediction tool?
 
Because every sceptics knows that playing with numbers to confirm a theory is close to a complotist based mindset.


No, the problem here is that I put more weight into the Gorowase than you.
Yeah I see that, that's precisely the problem lol

think it is a very strong hint and that we need to take it into consideration. You put little weight into it and disregard it as unimportant. And this is ok for me. You and I can think what we want.
I do not point only no weight into it, I say that it is a very BAD WAY to theorize in general.


Ok, you need to stop there and explain for a moment in detail what you are meaning by: "Yes, and I proceed "SCIENTIFICALLY" (quotes because its not really scientific work, only the reasonning is)."
I proceed in a popperian way of thinking. Meaning that I use refutability as a way to prove my theory.

In other words, my goal is not to prove my theory right, its to make prove it wrong. This is how hard science work. Creating theory is a thing, but creating theory is simple. What is hard is to prove your theory. And trying to prove your theory by looking at elements that prove your theory right as a name its called a confirmation bias. To fight that, you actually need to do the opposite and make your theory refutable.

That's why my theory about Carrot had an ending point. Being the end of Wano. If I didn't added that, there would be no way to disprove my theory and therefore my theory would just be a bunch of bullshit.

your theory about number is exactly that. Its BS. Why ? Because its a theory that works backward, you find your element AFTER theoryzing to confirm your theory. So in short, pretty much anything and everything could fit into your theory as long as number are involve.

This is the prime trap in which are falling conspiracy theorist. They are using elements to prove their theory right instead of trying to prove their theory wrong.


Because, you stated that you believed that if Oda plans to add one more crew member Carrot has a good chance to join later on.
Yes, but there is an "IF" in my sentence. I don't think Oda plans to add another member.


since why else would you stuff so much work into a project, if you believed that no one else would join. Why make a prediction tool?
Because I love theorizing. My goal here is not to prove that Carrot will join, its to make a prediction system reliable enough in the case that Oda is actually thinking about adding a new member into the crew. But it can perfectly be all for nothing.
 
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