I agree with your takes. Oda hasnโt ever deviated from his usual outline and this arc will not be an exception, unless it involves Zoro whoโs also had precedence. Given that youโve also read OP for several years, and your also pushing Zoro v King, that says something.
Listen, I've been reading OP for nearly 15 years at this point (aging myself but I was 12 when I started) with CNET translations after scans released way later than what we get, but I definitely don't hold my opinion higher than others. I just recognize some of the shit Oda does or has done and try and present that to people, even those on here as hard as it is.....Though he could be entirely breaking the mold on what I personally expect him to do.
I just try to apply some sort of logic to what I'm seeing. The only thing that truly has bothered me about Zoro directly fighting Yonko at this point is that Oda never really allowed Zoro to have some key moments that proved he was ready to do so, unlike Luffy. We also have Luffy who consistently fights main villains who are far stronger than Zoro's on general. Its just the standard Shonen staple that normally implies how much stronger the MC normally is.
I WILL say though that Oda has done an excellent job on keeping virtually every crew member relevant in some way, combat or not. You can see something like Dragon ball and Krillen became pointless after Namek essentially.
I really, truly have no direct issue with Zoro fighting Kaido with Luffy. It actually explains how Luffy can/should win this arc along with the other Supernova. But I wish we got an explanation for why he's now all of a sudden been matched as Luffys contemporary when it comes to matchups. This was never the case before and it likely won't be when Luffy fights Blackbeard, so why break the threshold now? I would have expected it when Luffy potentially fights Shanks and Zoro fights Mihawk since that essentially elicits a sort of equality when it comes to who they are fighting.
Also on that note, its also worth just pointing out that it wasn't retroactive bias to call Robin/Brook vs Black Maria. They were heading to the mansion after Zoro went up to the roof, and I was essentially calling it the past 2 months because Jinbe was essentially solidified to WsW due to story ties (though I do admit I was about Brook taking over until this chapter again). Same reason why I've been calling Sanji vs Queen. Yamato vs Jack is based solely on the fact that she seems to be the only other available powerhouse, but at this point she's not near Jack so I have no idea. Chopper being involved with Page 1 just comes from the fact that the weak duo only seems to be fighting Ulti, who is specifically angry at them. Hes pretty much the last one out at that point.
Any number of these aren't guaranteed, but you can logic your way through potential possibilities. Zoro vs King first started because King is a meito user. However, so is WsW and Jinbe is breaking that rule of engagement so who knows. Its really just all in good fun. I actually don't care what the matchups end up being, I just want the story to flow logically because One Piece is a story thoroughly enjoy doing rereads on. Even if Zoro fights a Yonko till the end of the arc, im sure Oda will explain his growth logically.