I keep thinking the raid will fail because it seems much too early and the scale isn't big enough, this should be the fight of the century that encompasses both continents. What about Tama, Hiyori, the time bomb that Oda likes?
But evidence points towards it not failing. With all players present, all boats destroyed, and Luffy especially will go in for the knockout after Kaido is weakened.
Also, recent reminders that OP is in it's final stretch, there may be only 3 acts.
Oda is usually predictable with his patterns but he's a genius at keeping it a mystery this time.