Anyway I've skimmed over, don't think Ultra has to be TAC but I do agree that he's trending down. Here are his pushes so far:
Adam - Town
Ekko - Lean Town
Soul - Pro Town
And all of these have come at the expense of defending scum in Watson, and potentially Mango. Mango was more of an afterthought though. Basically he has been 100% WRONG, which should be raising alarm bells to anyone familiar with him. Also think him buddying with Cal today looks like open scumming, but don't think he'd bother maintaining innocence in that case.
He's rolecrushed so he can be killed. He's had all day to re-evaluate and get his head in the game and he would rather flame people instead, no need to waste more time on that slot. If he says he can confirm himself then he can do it today.
Think TAC/Rej should still be the way.