I’m not disqualifying her because of some rule I made up. To be quite honest my way of predicting the next Nakama is quite stupid, although I’ve been right for every character except of Robin and Yamato. My way of predicting is just going by my feeling. The feeling I have when the character is introduced(is this character main character material or not?) and by how the character interacts which Luffy. Bonnie doesn’t give me strawhat vibes. I didn’t think Robin will join, didn’t even cross my mind and then she did. I thought Yamato will join(she kinda did) and she didn’t join. Every other character I knew was a strawhat the moment he/she was introduced.
Whoa, same, I also didn't get Robin & Yamato right, but for the rest of characters it was extremely obvious they would end up in SH crew. Yeah, there are certain patterns, but most importantly it felt right for those characters to become SH. I wasn't active on forums when Franky vs Paulie wars were happening as I started reading OP when in already hit 600 chapters and there was pre-time skip hiatus, and I didn't read any spoilers, but it was super obvious Paulie wouldn't join. I had a moment of trust in Carrot (although for me it felt wrong) in WCI with the focus she'd been getting, but once she faded into background in Wano, it was the moment of confirmation I needed to reassure myself that my gut feeling is worth something. And then Yamato letdown happened...eh, still hope Yamato won't be forever in Wano, but let's see how it goes.