[FNZ] Salem of Lies Round 09: Throne of Lies

Status
Not open for further replies.

TheAncientCenturion

I will never forgive Oda
‎‎‎
Except when they can start killing us at night and we can't kill them at night if we lose all our killing roles.
We raise the odds of losing higher because we would need to be bang on the lynch each day because the next day after we lynch someone they fill the spot.

We miss lynch the next day the cooldown is over and they can refill the slot the next time someone is lynched.

Death by a thousand cuts.
That's assuming they convert a killing role at all. I'm pretty confident either Neutralwatcher or Nat is gone due to both outing themselves as invest. So, 3/4 slots and none of them killing.
 
That's assuming they convert a killing role at all. I'm pretty confident either Neutralwatcher or Nat is gone due to both outing themselves as invest. So, 3/4 slots and none of them killing.
Except the cult leader in this game has an ability called eradicate according to the wiki. Its possible the twerk is he can't use it till they have 4 members and he can ice 2 people with it.

So kills 2 at night, we lynch, replenish, kills 2 at night if we didn't get cult leader, we can lose 4 to 5 in a 2 night span if we mess up.
 

Kiwipom

Ghost Princess


This is either the most brilliant thought I've ever had, or the final nail in the coffin that cements me as a retard.

We shouldn't lynch anyone, anymore. We cannot win the game by lynching each day.

The cult can have a maximum of 4 players in it. The cult strat. is that, after occupancy is reached, they sacrifice their members to make vacancies for more townies. If Cult is at max. occupancy, the only thing we get out of lynching is killing ourselves faster. We just make it easier for them to convert another player to their cause—making past reads on them useless—and keeps Cult at 100% power or close to it.

If we keep this up, where every other day another person can be turned into a member of the cult and freely bus a suspected Cult member—because why would we suddenly think otherwise of someone we town read?—we'll reach a dangerously low number of players. The way I see it, the more we lynch, the worse off we are.

WE WANT CULT TO HAVE 4 MEMBERS.

Cult has at most 3 right now. There is a cool down on the wiki for conversions;
So we'd essentially need to give the Cult a free day pass to convert someone (like we can honestly stop them otherwise) but, I think it's worth it. If we know the Cult isn't growing, it means that we are dealing with consistencies here. It means that, it isn't random and it won't be the people we least suspect converted. We can build steady cases on players and actually trust one another.

We don't lynch anyone, we then go back through Days 1 & 2 and look for;

  • Suspicious Players
  • Anyone posting just enough to get a night ability off
The Cult Leader is posting in these days to convert. At least Day 1, and we can assume Day 2 if Night 1 conversion failed. So anyone who isn't helping, but talking nonetheless, we can look into and file under suspicious. At that point, we can go over other players in other day phases and talk naturally.

This isn't without its risks. This is not a fool proof plan.


The Cult Leader in the wiki has the power to whittle us down, although I'm not sure how this meshes with Drago's set up where he claims Cult doesn't have killing initially. This could be an exception or maybe the role is tweaked.



But, contrary to what you might think, this could benefit us. The Cult Leader is only going to be using this move on his opponents, presumably. Meaning, we'll have less players to be suspicious of and those we're more sure of will stand out. Likewise, if he goes for friendly fire and kills his teammates with these, anyone who we are very suspicious of and isn't dead will be safer to go after.

_________________________________________________

In Closing:

I think the way we win this game is by not lynching frivolously. We can't even verify our TI so we'll be relying on reads. Reads that will change every day, considering we do not know the conversion pattern / who is our friend or not.

What we need is consistency, and if we allow Cult to get max. occupancy and we force them to stay there as we dig through the first 2 days for the Cult Leader (guaranteed to be posting in either) I think it'll go a long way to ending this game.

It's slow and steady. Not a race to the finish line.

Be the tortoise.
I was trying to play the music you linked while I read the plan - which imo is shit - but apparently I can’t multitask like that on mobile :pepeke:

Anyways. I highly disagree with this plan. The town’s most powerful weapon is lynching. How else are we going to find the cult leader if we don’t start lynching? Especially now when we have Queen as top suspect

If you’re right that there is 3 cult members currently with one of them being Nat who converted, Queen is most likely one of the OG 2. 1 in 2 chances of stopping the cult leader right now and you’re telling us to not lynch anyone?
 
Well she is a townie who claimed Physician and is now acting like Investigate roles. So I think you should ask her for the better reasonings.
dont fall for it
fool is a neutral role
power of mind warp makes a blue dragon appear as cult not a neutral role
queen is trying to act like flower as a fall back now
I aint falling for it .
I dont buy shit .
yall know How I get when am this convinced .
am lynching queen tonight.
 

TheAncientCenturion

I will never forgive Oda
‎‎‎
Except the cult leader in this game has an ability called eradicate according to the wiki. Its possible the twerk is he can't use it till they have 4 members and he can ice 2 people with it.

So kills 2 at night, we lynch, replenish, kills 2 at night if we didn't get cult leader, we can lose 4 to 5 in a 2 night span if we mess up.
Which I mentioned in my plan. It means that; We look for the Cult Leader in the first 2 days. If he kills 2 of his own, then that makes it so much easier. Because we 100% will find him in the first 2 days, in a game this inactive.
I was trying to play the music you linked while I read the plan - which imo is shit - but apparently I can’t multitask like that on mobile :pepeke:

Anyways. I highly disagree with this plan. The town’s most powerful weapon is lynching. How else are we going to find the cult leader if we don’t start lynching? Especially now when we have Queen as top suspect

If you’re right that there is 3 cult members currently with one of them being Nat who converted, Queen is most likely one of the OG 2. 1 in 2 chances of stopping the cult leader right now and you’re telling us to not lynch anyone?
How? We lynch someone, and the next day or the day after, they're replaced and we're down 1 town. But we don't know who.

We need consistent reads Kiwi. How can you even be sure who is townie right now? Only when Cult is full can we start to be sure of who's who.

IMO, lynching in this game helps the scum a lot more than us.
Post automatically merged:

We are dealing with a hydra and you people want to keep lobbing off heads.
 
Which I mentioned in my plan. It means that; We look for the Cult Leader in the first 2 days. If he kills 2 of his own, then that makes it so much easier. Because we 100% will find him in the first 2 days, in a game this inactive.

How? We lynch someone, and the next day or the day after, they're replaced and we're down 1 town. But we don't know who.

We need consistent reads Kiwi. How can you even be sure who is townie right now? Only when Cult is full can we start to be sure of who's who.

IMO, lynching in this game helps the scum a lot more than us.
Post automatically merged:

We are dealing with a hydra and you people want to keep lobbing off heads.
Why would the cult leader target his own people? are you hoping our redirects are spot on or something?
 

TheAncientCenturion

I will never forgive Oda
‎‎‎
Why would the cult leader target his own people? are you hoping our redirects are spot on or something?
If the cult leader doesn't target his own people, it helps us because now the reads we'll get—consistent and clean and full of delightful questions—will be narrowed down with 2 townies dead.

And once we're reasonably sure who the Maf is?

Bam, Prince kills one. We lynch another at night. next day we lynch 1 more.

We can counter them so much faster if we just NOT LYNCH for a 2 days or so and try to focus on the reads.
 

Kiwipom

Ghost Princess
Which I mentioned in my plan. It means that; We look for the Cult Leader in the first 2 days. If he kills 2 of his own, then that makes it so much easier. Because we 100% will find him in the first 2 days, in a game this inactive.

How? We lynch someone, and the next day or the day after, they're replaced and we're down 1 town. But we don't know who.

We need consistent reads Kiwi. How can you even be sure who is townie right now? Only when Cult is full can we start to be sure of who's who.

IMO, lynching in this game helps the scum a lot more than us.
Post automatically merged:

We are dealing with a hydra and you people want to keep lobbing off heads.
lemme reread this grand plan again.
 

TheAncientCenturion

I will never forgive Oda
‎‎‎
I can't see how we'll win this game at the current pace beyond maybe dumb luck.

We have 1 dead TI and 2 TI claims out there. Both mostly verified.

This means we're probably out of other invest roles. So, we need to rely on reads. But the only way we'll win this way is if we stay one step ahead of Cult.

To put it into perspective, we will always have a better chance of lynching Town and the Cult can find ways to hide among trustworthy players. The way I see this game ending is we're just whittling down the number of players in general—town / Scum—and hope we've gotten enough by final 5 or final 3 so we have majority.

Which, when you include players like Flowa? No. I don't see it as possible. I think we'll end up losing majority if we lynch like this.
 
If the cult leader doesn't target his own people, it helps us because now the reads we'll get—consistent and clean and full of delightful questions—will be narrowed down with 2 townies dead.

And once we're reasonably sure who the Maf is?

Bam, Prince kills one. We lynch another at night. next day we lynch 1 more.

We can counter them so much faster if we just NOT LYNCH for a 2 days or so and try to focus on the reads.
Except Prince could be a target and die easily enough. Honestly your strat leaves a lot of holes and gives everyone time to think of convenient lies and shit
 

Reborn

Throughout Heaven & Earth,I alone am d Honored One
I don't know about this..

Being passive is like playing in scum hands. And we also have Neutrals in this game and not just cult.

And,just look at 5 cult abilties on wiki. They can easily mess up Townie especially if we remain passive. Once they got 3 -4 members then they would be like general Mafia we had in earlier games and we would be like sitting duck.


And worse part is we will remain clueless because we won't be lynching anyone especially when there is sus and counter sus going on which need to be resolved

NW claim queen is cult

Queen sus DA,Nat, and TAC

DA sus queen

Nat sus queen and NW

It's really important to resolve this because if unresolved then we would be revolving in circles..and, only way to do so is Lynch.


And, let me remind you @TheAncientCenturion that the reason we (including you)avoided lynching flower yesterday was because she is fool. Lynching a fool before day 3 means there won't be trial for one or two days which is harmful for townie.

In short, townie lynching jester like fool makes townie pay for it by no trials and benefit scums including both cult and Neutrals.

I don't agree with this idea
 
Vote Queen

Kiwi i have started to sus you not being a Good King.

I think Queen targeting DA bt not going strongly after him could be bussing. This is D3, we lost our advantage to Cult members nw. And its optimum they use Sacrificial strategies.
Also wouldn't put aside that they may try to act fool on purpose, like Queen few posts felt somewhat to me.

I did like Tac reply to Reborn case, bt his flipping even tho reasons make sense was scummy. I mean you can still keep the Vote for reactions and take it back later on bt it felt like you were rather playing safely. You posts last days seems to me like preparwd ones. And only reason i can't completely clear Flowet as Fool is because you were the one that first suggested it.

Reborn case was also weak on tac, it's not unusual for him to questions players that have already voived their reasons. Maybe he wanted a reactn, for nw i would give him the benefit of doubt as trying his best being a Townie. We also can at times become biased against players we sus and read what we want to. So i can understand his post.

Krogothwolf posts appear to me of townie, bt i kept a chck on those who jumped on Nat bandwagon and he also did the same.

And i can vouch for Nat not being converted N2.
 

TheAncientCenturion

I will never forgive Oda
‎‎‎
Except Prince could be a target and die easily enough. Honestly your strat leaves a lot of holes and gives everyone time to think of convenient lies and shit
So you think blindly lynching is the way to go? Because we are DIRECTIONLESS and every day we need to think of who can and can't be trusted! We're going in blind and giving scum time to make a plan, to convert key players to hide among us. I can't see this benefiting us.

We'll lose majority this way unless we get lucky. But we can't predict luck.

At least with my strat, we force Cult into max. occupancy and then we can try to scum read. Prince dies? Okay. If we can pinpoint 3 Cult players via this plan and take them out in rapid succession? We have a much better chance of victory. And we have good reason to believe Mafia doesn't have factionkill yet. So we're in even less danger.
 
Vote Queen

Kiwi i have started to sus you not being a Good King.

I think Queen targeting DA bt not going strongly after him could be bussing. This is D3, we lost our advantage to Cult members nw. And its optimum they use Sacrificial strategies.
Also wouldn't put aside that they may try to act fool on purpose, like Queen few posts felt somewhat to me.

I did like Tac reply to Reborn case, bt his flipping even tho reasons make sense was scummy. I mean you can still keep the Vote for reactions and take it back later on bt it felt like you were rather playing safely. You posts last days seems to me like preparwd ones. And only reason i can't completely clear Flowet as Fool is because you were the one that first suggested it.

Reborn case was also weak on tac, it's not unusual for him to questions players that have already voived their reasons. Maybe he wanted a reactn, for nw i would give him the benefit of doubt as trying his best being a Townie. We also can at times become biased against players we sus and read what we want to. So i can understand his post.

Krogothwolf posts appear to me of townie, bt i kept a chck on those who jumped on Nat bandwagon and he also did the same.

And i can vouch for Nat not being converted N2.
say no more pls.
 

TheAncientCenturion

I will never forgive Oda
‎‎‎
Being passive is like playing in scum hands. And we also have Neutrals in this game and not just cult.
Okay, so how is this working out for us though?

We can't trust anyone right now. The most trustworthy guy is NeutralWatcher and I'm not 100% sold he isn't converted right now.

If we let Cult do their thing and convert, we will have the same group of scum interacting, making lies, and being inconsistent for a few days. We can draw on patterns. And once we have enough clues to indicate who is who—assuming we can't rely on TIs—we act.

Because honestly, I'm speaking fully truthfully right now. I don't think I'll be able to reliably scum read the later on in this game we go. It feels like we're just going to hit more unknowns if we let Cult constantly shuffle members into their group. It'll call into question everything anyone says and each day is almost completely isolated when it comes to reads.

We can't keep consistency in the current set up. And without reliable TIs, we need consistency to scum read.
 
So you think blindly lynching is the way to go? Because we are DIRECTIONLESS and every day we need to think of who can and can't be trusted! We're going in blind and giving scum time to make a plan, to convert key players to hide among us. I can't see this benefiting us.

We'll lose majority this way unless we get lucky. But we can't predict luck.

At least with my strat, we force Cult into max. occupancy and then we can try to scum read. Prince dies? Okay. If we can pinpoint 3 Cult players via this plan and take them out in rapid succession? We have a much better chance of victory. And we have good reason to believe Mafia doesn't have factionkill yet. So we're in even less danger.
We'll lose majority the same way unless we get lucky. We also have no idea if our King is good King which could kill our lynch at one point if its a cult king.

We are playing blind and giving up the lynch because you want to play as a tortoise which limits are ability to do so.

You're being way to quick to give up one of towns weapons because you want to play it safe, mafia isn't about being safe, safe gets town slaughtered.
Post automatically merged:

Vote Queen

Kiwi i have started to sus you not being a Good King.

I think Queen targeting DA bt not going strongly after him could be bussing. This is D3, we lost our advantage to Cult members nw. And its optimum they use Sacrificial strategies.
Also wouldn't put aside that they may try to act fool on purpose, like Queen few posts felt somewhat to me.

I did like Tac reply to Reborn case, bt his flipping even tho reasons make sense was scummy. I mean you can still keep the Vote for reactions and take it back later on bt it felt like you were rather playing safely. You posts last days seems to me like preparwd ones. And only reason i can't completely clear Flowet as Fool is because you were the one that first suggested it.

Reborn case was also weak on tac, it's not unusual for him to questions players that have already voived their reasons. Maybe he wanted a reactn, for nw i would give him the benefit of doubt as trying his best being a Townie. We also can at times become biased against players we sus and read what we want to. So i can understand his post.

Krogothwolf posts appear to me of townie, bt i kept a chck on those who jumped on Nat bandwagon and he also did the same.

And i can vouch for Nat not being converted N2.
How do you vouch for Nat?
 

TheAncientCenturion

I will never forgive Oda
‎‎‎
We'll lose majority the same way unless we get lucky. We also have no idea if our King is good King which could kill our lynch at one point if its a cult king.

We are playing blind and giving up the lynch because you want to play as a tortoise which limits are ability to do so.

You're being way to quick to give up one of towns weapons because you want to play it safe, mafia isn't about being safe, safe gets town slaughtered.
And acting like chickens without our heads gives Cult the chaos they need to blend in, fuck up reads.

We need to acknowledge how screwed we are. We can't trust either living TI and a third is dead.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top