Idk we'll see. Elbaf could be the Wano to Egghead's WCI in terms of keeping a major player or two, but imo, the WG in the least should start their conflict with the Revolutionary Army. Right now I just dont believe it since Saturn and Kizaru technically accomplished what they needed to, unlike Big Mom (who failed her shit completely lol).
Agreed. ~30-35 chapters (due to his reduced output) a year doesnt net us much these days with arc inflation, not to mention chapters are generally shorter (13-15 pagers are more frequent than ever; 19 doesnt exist anymore).
If I had to guess, yeah Elbaf probably is probably another WCI/DR sized arc. My biggest concern however is it possibly not addressing current characters (i.e. not a Yonko, Akainu, WG, Rocks or the BSM) and just Oda using another new character not explained or shown. So if that happens we are still left at the same ballpark we've been at since the end of Wano with none of it resolved.
Im still banking on the 1400-1500 range. Basically 8-12 more years. It sounds ridiculous now but when you consider whats left and his pacing it just starts to make sense unless he absolutely rushes the rest of the series (also very possible).
Not ridicolous at all, I agree with you.
As
@dirtyLarry pointed out, Oda always proceeds with increments of 50, 100 or 150 (only in Wano) chapters. Egghead has been covered in 75 chapters, more or less, and the total count of Egghead + Elbaf will be 150 chapters at least imo, meaning 75 chapters for Elbaf and the Arc ending with chapter 1200.
So we can estabilish that we'll move away from Elbaf around CH. 1200 (best case scenario) which is 2+ years from now, with the current pacing... 2027.
After that, there's still AT THE VERY LEAST:
• Lodestar
• Laughtale
• New Marineford/Mary Geoise
• Epilogue
These are all very important Arcs that will take some time. Lodestar is the only one I can see with 50 chapters only tbh. A total of 200 chapters minimum (after Elbaf) is still needed to wrap things up. Keep in mind that there are other flashback that we'll probably see, the most important one being Joyboy's in the Void Century. That alone could take a couple of volumes by itself, maybe even 3...
Overall, there are a lot of things to cover and some of them we don't even realize yet.
One Piece will either end with 1400 chapters (fast pace) or 1500 chapters (slower pace).