@Charlotte Horchata: first of all, I'd like to apologise to you. I was a real dick yesterday, and I'm sorry.
Kaido was introduced as a character that couldn't be killed even in the context of being imprisoned and potentially exposed to seastone, his daughter has been emphasized to have abnormal durability just like him and, following this last point, what they both have (minimum) in common is that they both remain members of an unknown race —which has been a recurring theme with Kaido, from Nami noticing the inhuman part of him instead of his superlative strength to the emperor himself reflecting on the nature of humans (which he isn't) after defeating Luffy.
I think he has racial traits that make him abnormally durable.
The fact here is that we don't know why he's invincible in a 1 versus 1. I'm not denying that it may be about his fruit, but I'm not denying other possibilities either.
I don't think they are equal possibilities?
We have over a dozen characters (some of them are extremely credible) hyping up Kaido's fruit. We have nothing in the story hyping up his race.
The only thing that hypes up his race is that he and Yamato are both very durable. However, that may simply be the result of their respective Devil Fruits.
Kaido's Devil Fruit as a hypothesis is not equal to Kaido's race (or other explanations).
The Devil Fruit has a fuckton of evidence in its favour.
Other explanations have nothing.
Even the most basic event of flipping a coin requires controlling fairness, measuring the variance of the distribution... and, to do so, studying the variables involved.
Not really. I can apply the zero information prior. There are two possibilities I initially assume both are equally likely. And then I update on new information from there using Laplace's rule of succession.
Prior probabilities are probabilities you assign before making any observations.
So no, you're just flat out wrong here. You don't have to do any measurements before assigning a prior. You always have a prior. When you first take measurements before expressing your credences, you just have implicit unexpressed priors.
Well, I subscribe to the
Bayes school of probability theory.
Wikipedia article on Bayesian statistics.
Stating that what I expressed is incredibly stupid is like saying that it's stupid to state that maybe we should take into account the wind direction, the possibility of it being loaded, how the person is purposely throwing it... when assigning probabilities to the outcomes of flipping a coin; all of which you need to do to assure that it will be close to 50/50 when n tends to infinity. And, again, we are in a story in which Oda not only may suddenly introduce a strong wind, but may also make us believe the wind is blowing in a different direction it actually is for the sake of subvertion.
Hmm, I guess I'm ingrained in a philosophy of probability theory where what you said is the equivalent of saying:
"You can't express odd numbers in terms of their prime factors" (e.g you can't express 33 as the product of 3 x 11).
If someone told you that, wouldn't it sound
stupid to you? Like nonsense? 33 is literally 3 x 11, and someone is saying no, you can't do that.
I'm ingrained in a philosophy of probability theory (and I honestly think it's the only sensible philosophy of probability theory), where the probability of an even is not some objective fact about the world, but merely an expression of subjective belief in a proposition.
When I say the probability of the coin coming up heads is 50%, it doesn't mean that the coin comes up heads 50% of the time. It means that my confidence in the coin coming up heads is 50%.
Probability assignments are credences.
All propositions can be assigned probabilities. You can never not assign a credence. Hell, even if you haven't explicitly assigned a credence to a particular proposition, there is an implicit credence.
For every proposition, there's always some credence attached (even if it's just implicit).
I don't want to go into this at more length because epistemology isn't what I'm here to discuss, but your statements were literally nonsense. Like as nonsense as saying: "you can't factorise odd numbers".
we are free to not focus so much on "indications" and "hints
Not really. I think trying to speculate with no basis for speculation is writing fanfic not real theory crafting.
Speculations with no basis are very likely to be wrong. Such hypotheses should not be privileged.
let alone establishing very specific probabilities
Hmm, well you always have a certain degree of confidence in a belief even if you don't explicitly express it.
Stating it explicitly helps me keep track of my beliefs and update them on new evidence in a coherent manner.